COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 6th November 2020.
The UK added 23,287 cases today and now has reported a total of 1,146,484 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 344,045 tests yesterday.
12,999 people were in hospital on 4th November (up from 10,708 a week earlier), with 1,181 using a ventilator yesterday, 5th November (up from 975 a week earlier).
In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 355 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 48,475 officially reported losses of life in all settings. Up until Friday 23rd October 60,051 people had COVID written on their death certificate.
Cases / Losses of life with COVID on the death certificate up until latest report date:
England 975,504 (+130,454 last 7 days) / 51,844
Northern Ireland 41,969 (+5,029 last 7 days) / 972
Scotland 70,732 (+7,838 last 7 days) / 4,482
Wales 58,279 (+9,016 last 7 days) / 2,753
Rep. Of Ireland 64,538 (+492) cases and 1,940 (+7) losses of life.
There have now been a total of 49,381,055 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,244,630. Already 35,160,021 people have recovered.
Today's indie SAGE briefing was a lot more positive than the last few - phew! There are some clear signs that growth is slowing. Case numbers are still growing, but the trajectory has turned over slightly and is looking a lot less steep. There are likely to be several reasons:
1. We just had half term, so less kids are likely to have mixed.
2.Local measures were having a small effect, which wasn't really visible until enough time had elapsed.
3. Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are ahead of us in their restrictions, and cases are dropping there. .
4. The University situation has stabilised.
5. Recent announcements may have helped change people's behaviour.
Hospital admissions are also beginning to slow, with some areas even levelling off. Still rising pretty rapidly in the midlands.
Test & Trace have managed to get over 40% of results back within 24 hours - a huge improvement! Non-complex cases reached has also risen well, but contacts reached hasn't got any better. Still, on the way there...
He estimates that only around 5-10% of all contacts of positive people are isolating - mostly because rest don't don't know they should be, or aren't in a position to isolate.
Mortality figures are not yet showing any signs of slowing, and are expected to be pretty horrific over the 2-4 weeks. He reminds us that every number represents a person who has lost their life.
This is indie SAGE's 6 month anniversary, and although they only ever expected to exist for about 3 months, they'll keep going "as long as it is necessary". They ask the UK Government, "what is the end strategy?"
Sir David King, ex-head of real SAGE (Government Scientific Advisory Group) had a big presentation today.
He told us that by the end of lockdown, hopefully we will be at around 5,000 new cases per day. He wants this to be our last lockdown, and in order to do that, we need an end strategy that we know will work. Quite simply indie SAGE feel that finding, testing, isolating and supporting positive people and their contacts within 24 hours is key. The maximum number of tests isn't as important as testing everyone you need to test, and getting them to isolate. It is a basic strategy to isolate the sick animals and separate them from the healthy population. Threatening someone with a £10,000 fine for not isolating, when they can't afford to isolate and still feed their children or keep their home, is pointless. SUPPORT is key, not threats.
He says we need shoe leather, local members of test & trace teams walking around. Local people need to understand the importance of self-isolation. "If we don't achieve a much higher percentage, we are not going to see this epidemic come to an end."
indie SAGE also had a presentation on Universities, and the evidence is really clear - in Summer we knew full well that significant amounts of 'in-person' teaching would have a really negative effect in universities. We could see what happened in America, we could see all of the modelling, even the official SAGE briefings to Government said that learning should be remote when possible.
They also say that students were assured they'd have some freedom of movement, but they're now not supposed to move back home until the end of term, which could cause massive December price hikes, and make it impossible for some (overseas especially) to even go home.
Their mental health isn't being looked after.
