COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 11th November 2022

World COVID Statistics: 639,532,801 reported cases and 6,612,327 losses of life.

"Does it need to be stated that infection with a pathogenic virus does not confer a net benefit to the host? Because sometimes it feels like there is a need to say this."

Aris Katzourakis, Professor of Evolution and Genomics at Oxford Uni, reminding us that things which do not kill us do not always make us stronger.

"This view of relative mortality risk by age (share of all death certificates mentioning COVID) continues to trace a pattern of decreasing ripples. 

This is despite COVID prevalence being considerably higher than it was in January 2021."

Numbers guy Paul Mainwood summing up the ONS graph nicely. It's great to be a long way away from thousands of deaths a week, but remember low constant ripples still mean we are losing hundreds of people every week. It isn't over, especially for people who are at greater risk. 

Latest ONS stats (to 6th November) are positive - officially reported cases (people who test positive), hospitalisations and deaths are all DOWN on the previous week.

Latest ONS Infection Survey random sampling is also positive. We know cases are likely to go up with Winter, so the lower we can start off, the better. This is a more accurate true measure, as they invite thousands of randomly selected people for a test each week. 

"The percentage of people testing positive for COVID19 decreased across all UK countries."

- England, estimate 1,323,200, equating to 2.43% of the population, or around 1 in 40 people.

- Wales, estimate 72,400, equating to 2.38% of the population, or around 1 in 40 people.

- Northern Ireland, estimate 39,900, equating to 2.17% of the population, or around 1 in 45 people.

- Scotland, estimate 107,300, equating to 2.04% of the population, or around 1 in 50 people.

"I believe we found room for hope in Glasgow. With one last chance to create a plan that would limit global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees, we made the promises to keep that goal within reach... And the question today is this, can we summon the collective will to deliver them? I believe we can."

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak addressing the other delegates at the COP27 Climate Conference - which he did go to, despite saying he wouldn't. Rumour has it he hadn't realised how important the future existence of humans was until he saw the guest list.

NHS figures out on Thursday were eye-wateringly bad - so bad they've issued revisions today, so sorry if I missed any alterations to averages.

1/ We have record breaking queues in A&E emergency departments:

- In October 43,792 people waited over 12 hours for a bed after a decision was made to admit them to hospital, up an extra third from 32,776 in September.

- In October 150,922 people waited at least 4 hours, up from 131,861 in September.

2/ We have record breaking numbers of people who have waited a long time for treatment:

- In October a staggering 401,537, or 1 in every 18 of us, had been waiting for over a year for treatment. Awesome.

- In good news, the number of people waiting 18 months or over has fallen substantially - down 60% on last year.

3/ Ambulance waiting times are, as we well know, grim. For some reason this month's English NHS stats don't include London (but they would likely be grimmer than grim):

- In October 2022, the mean average response time for Category 1 (England excluding London), was 9 minutes 56 seconds, with 90% within 17m 42s. Clearly longer than the 7 minute and 15 minute targets.

Zoe Bell of Upday News points out that we haven't actually met A&E targets since 2015 - 5 years before COVID. 

UK politics continues to bow under the weight of it's own ineptitude. It's like watching a teenager in heels trying to sneak upstairs in the dark after 15 shandies. Now our COVID-times Education Secretary and newly ordained Sir, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang Childcatcher Gavin Williamson, has "resigned" after accusations of bullying. It was all fun and games until someone said they weren't happy with being told to slit their throat or jump out of a window. (Defenestration is a rare event in the UK. More common with Russian COVID Doctors). 

Gavin said the allegations were "becoming a distraction"... err, yeah. Okay. 

According to Sky News, "a total of 80 ministers or whips have resigned or been sacked from the government since the start of 2022". Yowch. That's some world-beating staff turnaround...  

Remember back in 2020 when 'kids didn't catch COVID'. How times have changed... and also knowledge. Obviously kids always caught COVID. they were just less likely to show it. Sadly although our understanding has changed, everything else is slow to catch up, and in the UK we don't vaccinate young children. Omicron is more severe than previous COVID strains, and you can spot this in the unvaccinated populations, including our children. 

In 2022, up to October 31st, the UK had already hospitalised more children who are testing positive for COVID than in all of 2020 AND 2021 ADDED TOGETHER. The UK has a lot of people with COVID at any given moment, and many of these kids will only find out they have it when they turn up at A&E with a broken leg or asthma attack, but it is not an impressive figure. Even if they aren't really poorly, each bout of COVID can have a long lasting effect on things like concentration and tiredness. 

RSV is a MASSIVE problem in the Northern hemisphere as we head into our Winter. Figures are high and rapidly rising, especially in our youngest infants and children. This is Respiratory Syncytial Virus and it causes chest infections and bronchiolitis, and it has hospitalised a lot of children in New Zealand and Australia over their Winter. Keep your kids home if they are ill, and listen regularly to their breathing in case they develop a persistent wheeze or crackle, or begin to struggle.

A UK study has found that confidence in vaccinations has dropped across the board - whatever your religious, educational or cultural background. All this talk of side effects, efficacy rates, rule breaking and number fudging has made people think more and trust less.

(Read more, all of you. Not just headlines, think about the answers you actually want to know. If you are in doubt, get the numbers for yourself. Google is your friend.)

Waits for Cancer care in the UK are too long. Yet another victim of the NHS being on its knees and desperately short staffed.

The BBC has a clear article explaining that although screening is being rushed through to try and clear the backup, lack of specialist staff to actually oversee treatment means unnecessary delays for very anxious people, and a risk that treatment will arrive too late.

UK Nurses WILL be going on strike, as will Civil Servants. The UK isn't alone in this discontent. A lot of people worked solidly through COVID, risked their health before vaccinations, saw colleagues leave through illness or bereavement, and in return got clapped at and offered a crap pay rise.

Royal College of Nursing members at 176 NHS Organisations have voted to strike. Dates to be arranged. Closed door meetings between brand new Junior Government Health Ministers and nursing representatives are underway already.  

A US team have published a study looking at the difference masks make in schools. This isn't yet peer-reviewed, but it's getting a lot of high profile shares, which we can assume means no-one has spotted any huge errors at this point.

They looked at schools in Boston, Massachusetts, where masks were worn by all pupils and staff until February 2022. Two districts kept the mask mandates until June 2022, which allows for a comparison.

They found that the districts which kept masks were poorer, with older schools and more pupils per class. They also had "higher percentages of low-income students, students with disabilities, and students who were English-language learners, as well as higher percentages of Black and Latinx students and staff".

Despite having extra risk factors, those schools which kept masks continued with a steady amount of COVID cases, while the schools which got rid of masks had a big increase.

'During the 15 weeks after the statewide masking policy was rescinded, the lifting of masking requirements was associated with an additional 44.9 cases per 1000 students and staff, which corresponded to an estimated 11,901 cases and to 29.4% of the cases in all districts during that time.'

So there you have it (again). Masks DO make a big difference. 

As reported by Channel News Asia, “China will "unswervingly" stick to its zero-COVID policy and persevere with its "dynamic-clearing" approach to COVID-19 cases as soon as they emerge, health officials said on Saturday (Nov 5).”

They're not having it. China still have a mandatory quarantine for arrivals from abroad, and really do think the West is storing up problems for the future... and it's worth noting their vaccination rate is really very low, especially in older people. 

The latest area to be locked down is part of Guangzhou, after reporting over 1,000 cases a day for the last 5 days. Around 5.6 million residents were just told to stay home, in an attempt to prevent a whole area lockdown affecting over 19 million people. 

Despite remaining "unswerving", Chinese Health Authorities do at least review their rules and update them. As a result they have made several changes to their COVID policies, including reducing close contact quarantine from 7 days at a centralised location to 5 days (plus three days at home). Rules regarding inbound travellers and traveller quarantines have also eased.

We have heard before that our genes can make us more susceptible to severe COVID. This week Oxford University Professor Dr James Davies has revealed another unfortunate gene, which dates back to neanderthal times. LZTFL1 is found in around 15% of Europeans, and 60% of Southern Asian people, and it appears to double the risk you'll die from COVID. 

In the UK your risk of succumbing to COVID is clearly greater if you are not white - but it's been very hard to pinpoint physical reasons, as non-white people are also more likely to live in larger or multi-generational housing, more likely to work in high risk professions, less likely to be able to take time off sick, more likely to be poor etc etc... all risk factors.

The US CDC have a new campaign to encourage pregnant people to get their COVID vaccinations. The main point of the campaign is:

"Infants aged <6 months, who are ineligible for vaccination, have high COVID-19–associated hospitalization rates compared with other pediatric age groups."

Yes. Infants under 6 months do have high hospitalisation rates for COVID, and in the US that has gone up by a whopping x11 since Omicron COVID took over. 

Hold on before you panic, it's a bit misleading. Younger babies catching Omicron can show more cold or flu-like symptoms, so are more likely to be admitted out of caution. Most importantly a "return to normality" means far, FAR more people have COVID in the community, and as a result far, FAR more babies are being born WITH COVID.

Despite that eleven-fold increase in hospitalisations, the CDC see no increase in levels of severe illness. Being admitted to hospital doesn't mean they'll become very poorly - it means they're in the right place if they do.

Getting vaccinated before or during pregnancy hasn't shown any detrimental effect, and offers a level of protection for both the parent and newborn baby. (And as we well know - pregnancy and COVID don't mix well at all.) Talk it through with your healthcare professionals.

Ugandan schoolchildren will break up 2 weeks early on 25th November, because of Ebola. Official case counts only include confirmed cases, and sadly when you add on 'suspected', the numbers are not good. 8 school children have already died from Ebola, which can have a fatality rate as high as 80% - this outbreak is currently running at around 40-50%. According to leading expert Helen Branswell, (Senior Infectious Diseases Writer at STAT News), the updated total on Monday was believed to be 157 cases and 74 losses of life.

Remember the woman from Alberta, Canada, who had been refused an organ transplant because she wouldn't get vaccinated against COVID? The Court of Appeal have upheld that decision. They say expecting her to get up to date relevant vaccinations is not a violation of her rights. The survival rate for people with COVID after a recent organ transplant is greatly reduced. 

Scientists have announced they've found the oldest ever known sentence written by humans. It was written on an elephant ivory comb around 1700BCE and says:

"May this tusk root out the lice of the hair and the beard."

We really haven't changed... 

Ukraine's official Christmas stamp, “Separated by war”, was created by Valeria Mykhailova, a year 11 schoolgirl who, until becoming a refugee, lived in Mykolaiv. It's split in two, with a young woman sitting inside a Christmassy room alone, and an armed person in a helmet and military clothing, sitting alone on the battlefield with gunfire around.  

SchoolsWeek is reporting that the UK Government Treasury is going to be taking back over £100 million of the money earmarked for pupil catch-up schemes, as it hasn't been allocated this year. Schools have really struggled to access the money, because they have to pay 40% themselves this year, and they simply don't have it. Next year they'll be expected to pay 75% of the costs, so frankly it's hardly worth the paperwork.

It would be nice if the underspend went towards FREE catch-up programs for our most disadvantaged pupils. (It won't.) 

In case you missed it, the UK has a new King, and it has been confirmed we will get a one-off extra bank holiday when he has his Coronation. The crowning, swearing oaths and all that jazz will take place on Saturday 6th May, and the bank holiday will be on the Monday 8th May. I make that 2 proper weekends off in a row. Nice one.

A man arrested on a COVID ward in Scotland has been ruled by an Edinburgh Court to be an American wanted for serious sex crimes in the USA.

Nicholas Rossi claimed to be an Irish man named Arthur, and if Hollywood is anything to go by, his accent was probably appalling. He also claimed his tattoos (which matched the suspect) were drawn onto him while he was in a coma. 

Christmas really is on the way now. John Lewis have an absolutely excellent campaign, supporting young people leaving care, and highlighting fostering. Made me bawl. I've added it below. 

No numbers today because it's too long already, but next week I'll be without internet, or travelling, so it'll definitely be shorter! 

It is the weekend! Huzzah. I'm definitely having treats, because it's my birthday weekend, so I'm hoping to be very spoilt. I hope you are too. You've earned it, and we all need things to look forward to... 

Stay Sensible, Be Kind To Yourself, Save The NHS. 

Sources/Further Reading: 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

Interesting thread on NHS problems:

Link to John Lewis Ad: https://youtu.be/1z0jfP2gCIs

ONS

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1591038360956674050

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

Quotes

https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1589988433367560192?t=HJ1EVfXpfHxRfk9SxBRKtA&s=19

Rishi

https://upday.com/uk/world-can-deliver-on-climate-promises-sunak-tells-cop-27 

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1589680241529626624?t=CVgcoQGhz7wVPwx1YnEAXg&s=19

NHS stats - images:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/ambulance-quality-indicators/?hootPostID=353d8c198b221a5db64c5512db4cedee

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/ae-waiting-times-and-activity/ae-attendances-and-emergency-admissions-2022-23/

Image

England Excess Mortality:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

Gav

https://news.sky.com/story/sir-gavin-williamson-resigns-after-allegations-of-bullying-12742023

Image 

https://twitter.com/GavinWilliamson/status/1590074499889696768?t=wsIJobeghCO9tWH0XLGNpw&s=19

Kids and hospital

https://twitter.com/0minus_Prime/status/1589758832582225920?t=hs1Ur9aoFdJcDwRVh93qLQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/Antonio_Caramia/status/1589679889124569089?t=GT5ncXljBP66Z8-fBCJgcQ&s=19

Vaccine confidence

Strikes

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/KkJw7x

https://metro.co.uk/2022/11/10/map-shows-which-nhs-hospitals-will-be-impacted-by-nurse-strikes-17737340/

Cancer care

Masks in Schools

China

https://twitter.com/WilliamYang120/status/1588914733226549248?t=KGzojLBakkvxeGY7ZuepVA&s=19

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/11/09/china/china-covid-guangzhou-lockdown-intl-hnk/index.html

China has loosened some COVID rules. 

https://twitter.com/WilliamYang120/status/1590978848442974208?t=Uw4-GP78ZPo-hc2bwF4LcA&s=19

Pregnancy 

Genes

https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/957019/neanderthal-gene-caused-up-to-a-million-covid-deaths

Beard lice

https://news.sky.com/story/first-known-sentence-written-in-ancient-alphabet-discovered-on-a-head-lice-comb-12741750

Catch Up Premium

Ebola

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/8/uganda-to-close-schools-early-after-eight-children-die-of-ebola

Ukraine Christmas Stamp

https://twitter.com/MyrosiaM/status/1588078490829586434?t=E9zBbyqjVPNgK4kWD9o9Fg&s=19

Coma Tattoo

COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Weekly Update 4th November 2022

World COVID Statistics: 637,112,203 reported cases and 6,602,562 losses of life.

Latest ONS random sampling for the week ending 24 October is a mixed bag: 

"The percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) decreased in England, continued to decrease in Wales, continued to increase in Northern Ireland and the trend in the percentage of people testing positive was uncertain in Scotland."

- England, estimate 1,593,900, equating to 2.92% of the population, or around 1 in 35 people.

- Wales, estimate 77,500, equating to 2.55% of the population, or around 1 in 40 people.

- Northern Ireland, estimate 61,200, equating to 3.34% of the population, or around 1 in 30 people.

- Scotland, estimate 141,400, equating to 2.69% of the population, or around 1 in 35 people.

Going on holiday abroad doesn’t have to just take place in the summer. You can also see a number of delights during the winter months. Doing so could give you a renewed appreciation for an area, as well as allow you to see things you might miss if you only travel during the warm weather. Although this may mean that you need to swap out your sunglasses for a warm hat, you may be able to have a fantastic time away from home.

COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 28th October 2022

World: 634,784,361 reported cases and 6,589,972 losses of life.

This week's ONS random sampling for the week ending 17 October 2022 showed a decrease in people testing positive in Wales, an increase in Northern Ireland and Scotland, and "the trend was uncertain in England".

- England, estimate 1,748,400, equating to 3.21% of the population, or around 1 in 30 people.

- Wales, estimate 86,100, equating to 2.83% of the population, or around 1 in 35 people.

- Northern Ireland, estimate 53,700, equating to 2.92% of the population, or around 1 in 35 people.

- Scotland, estimate 159,200, equating to 3.02% of the population, or around 1 in 35 people.

Great news regarding hospital figures in the UK - we are definitely going down the other side of this wave. COVID hospital admissions are down across the board - England's 7 day average is down 16%, and hospital-acquired admissions for COVID are down 19%. A little welcome breathing space for the NHS.

Adele Groyer of the COVID Actuaries points out 32% of COVID hospitalisations in England are now people who caught COVID in hospital, compared to the peak of 40% 3 weeks ago: "This probably reflects reintroduction of more testing and masks at that time."

Simple measures, saving lives.

COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 21st October 2022

World: 631 million reported cases and 6.5 million losses of life.

"COVAX did not fail because it was badly designed. We failed because of the greed of the north. We failed because of the greed of the pharmaceutical industry. We failed because of self-interest in certain member states, who were not prepared to share"

Dr Mike Ryan of the World Health Organisation at the World Health Summit 2022.

The UK is still reporting higher numbers of deaths than usual, 10% higher in the latest report for the week ending 7th October.

"Calculated excess deaths (1,031) were significantly higher than the number of deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate (400). This is consistent with the general pattern of recent months."

COVID Actuaries. 

Why? The after-effect of the pandemic is multi-pronged, and although we can say these people probably died because we had a pandemic (and we know some of them died because scans or treatments were delayed), we can't yet seem to openly admit these figures are partly because some people catch COVID and never fully recover. 

An elderly patient with a chest infection has died in an ambulance outside Fairfield Hospital in Bury, Greater Manchester. There were no beds inside to transfer them to, and despite antibiotics and other treatment in the ambulance, they suffered a fatal heart attack.

This was inevitable with patients regularly being held in ambulances in car parks for 8 hours or more, and is horrific for the patient, their relatives and the ambulance staff. 

The British Medical Journal (BMJ) have published a study titled "Nurse staffing and inpatient mortality in the English National Health Service: a retrospective longitudinal study". 

It takes information from "19,287 ward-day observations with information on 4,498 nurses and 66,923 hospital admissions in 53 inpatient hospital wards for acutely ill adult patients for calendar year 2017".

They were looking to see if you were more likely to survive on wards staffed with experienced nurses. No surprises, they found that you were. 

"On average, an extra 12-hour shift by an RN (Registered Nurse) was associated with a reduction in the odds of a patient death of 9.6%. An additional senior RN (in NHS pay band 7 or 8) had 2.2 times the impact of an additional band 5 RN."

So yeah, the reason we pay experienced people more, is because there is no substitute for experience. Sadly our experienced NHS nurses are leaving in droves. They're over-worked, exhausted, disrespected and no end in sight, who can blame them?

This month's UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is attempting to restore worldwide faith in the UK Government and fiscal policy by destroying everything Kwasi Kwarteng did as quickly as possible. Real life Ctrl + Z (the "please God let me undo that" buttons). Sadly this includes the energy price cap. Bizarrely Putin has been rambling on about this too, he thinks placing a cap means you drive demand and meet the cap very quickly, and push prices over the top. Leaving it to fluctuate naturally ends in lower prices all round. In his opinion. 

So, yeah. No universal energy price cap after April in the UK. We have yet to see where that'll take us. Fingers crossed.

(Just ask Robert Peston.)

The UK ONS have released data on reinfections, and 'natural immunity', which looks at the level of infection that protects you in the future. Basically a very mild case of COVID won't give you the same protection as a more severe case. The implication of this is that, as with lots of other infectious diseases, some people will get infection after infection until one day they get it bad. As we know COVID can cause damage each time you get it, it isn't something we really want to catch repeatedly. (I'd be remiss if I didn't mention school children, care home residents, repeat visitors to hospitals and healthcare workers at this point.) 

The UK NHS is preparing for "what could be the worst Winter on record". We're told they are setting up "war rooms" or control hubs as would probably be a more appropriate name. The aim is to have a live view of where we have any vacant beds, in order to find space for as many people as possible (and stop them dying in the hospital car park or being turned away).

As yet we honestly have no idea how bad a Winter we will have, but assuming no measures against COVID, more damp and mold because of increased energy costs, waning immunity after 2 Winters indoors, and a large dose of complacency from the crowd, it is anticipated we may have a very bad year for respiratory infections, pneumonia and flu. Models predict we could even have half the UK's NHS hospital beds filled with people struggling to breathe.

Be sensible, make best use of fresh air and cardigans.

Lurking under the cloud of impending Winter doom, scientists are getting very agitated about which variants will take over - it will make all the difference. Exciting variants include:

- XBB, which is a combination of 2 Omicron variants (BA.2.75 and BJ.1) that is causing a (relatively small) surge in Asia, notably in Singapore and Bangladesh, and Maharashtra in India. It is on paper the most immune-evasive variant yet, although we have yet to see if that will prove true in real life. Early signs are better than predicted at this point.

- BA.2.75.2.

- BQ.1. The USA is experiencing an 'uptick' partly due to BQ.1 (finally, they get their own variant). They also have an issue with BQ.11. Watch this space... 

- BF.7. Belgium gets their own variant too.  

- BA.2.3.20

In the UK BA.2.75.X, BF.7 and BQ.X are all variants which "show evidence of a positive growth rate compared to BA.5". Basically they are low in number at the moment, but all are spreading more rapidly than the rate of our usual Omicron BA.5. Smaller, but faster. The strains currently designated a Variant Of Concern are all of those which start with Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5. 

"From UK data, BQ.X, BA.2.75.2 and BF.7 are the most concerning variants in terms of both growth and neutralisation data at present; there is also supportive animal model data for BA.2.75."

You got all that? Good. This is why I don't spend ages on variants, it's a full time job just to track what's out there. 

Hoax Of The Week:

mRNA vaccines for Heart Regeneration are hitting the news in some quarters (anti-vaxxers). I don't get it? It's like seagulls round chips. Something is public knowledge for years, then someone spots it and drags it out like news, and they all flock. Yes. Pfizer and Moderna and AstraZeneca are all DRUGS MANUFACTURERS. They weren't sitting round waiting for a pandemic, they were busy inventing new and more expensive drugs. 

And no, they haven't given us all something that causes heart damage and then offered us a cure. If they were genius evil villains then they'd be offering us all a cure for all the things COVID can cause, not just one. 

What's the difference in protection if you get your booster? Latest research about severe COVID and hospitalisation is in a new paper published in The Lancet (not yet peer reviewed). They found that using UK NHS figures, between 8th Dec 2020 and 28th Feb 2022:

"16,208,600 individuals completed their primary vaccine schedule and 13,836,390 individuals received a booster dose. Between 20th Dec 2021 and 28th Feb 2022, 59,510 (0·4%) of the primary vaccine group and 26,100 (0·2%) of those who received their booster had severe COVID-19 outcomes. The risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes reduced after receiving the booster (rate change: 8·8 events per 1000 person-years to 7·6 events per 1000 person-years)."

Older adults (≥80 years vs 18–49 years), those with comorbidities, males and people with certain underlying health conditions remained at high risk despite getting their first booster. People who had a COVID infection (at least 9 months before) were at reduced risk of reinfection.

Good news/bad news there. Remember though that we now have bivalent boosters especially designed for Omicron, and before vaccinations the rate of severe COVID was 10 times what it is now. 

Footage is emerging of schoolchildren in China wearing white disposable suits and boarding busses to go to COVID quarantine. 

"A recent preprint purported to show that SARS-CoV-2 is of synthetic origin, but it is so deeply flawed that it wouldn’t pass kindergarten molecular biology."

Kristian G Anderson of the Anderson Lab at Scripps Institute.

He goes to to explain they are getting over-excited about finding small virus mutations which will also occur naturally - and gives examples from the COVID GitHub database.

"The study is a clear example of motivated reasoning with a heavy dose of technobabble to make it sound legitimate - but it’s nothing more than poppycock dressed up as science."

He isn't all mean, he had a kind word for them:

"By all means, analyses such as these are valuable and worth doing - I myself did a bunch back in Jan/Feb, 2020. However, let’s make sure we have an actual scientific approach to them and don’t make up complete nonsense ‘studies’ to try and bolster a preferred narrative."

The US CDC has authorised the Novovax Vaccine as a mix and match booster for Americans aged 18+ who previously had the Pfizer or Moderna jab.

This is a classic vaccine, more similar to the Oxford AstraZeneca jab, and mixing vaccine types has proven more effective time and time again. Novovax is also particularly effective against Omicron B5, and it can be given to people who can't use mRNA vaccines. 

If we do have power cuts (seems likely) then a battery-operated camping lantern is a very safe thing for kids to carry and tends to be less hilarious than a torch. If you use candles then tealights floating in a cereal bowl look very pretty, and when the cat/child/dressing gown sleeve knocks them over, you've a large chance they'll be put out before they hit the floor. Be careful. 

We have more on the ongoing Ebola outbreak in Uganda, and it's taken a turn for the worse. Officials have imposed lockdowns in 2 areas and the US CDC have stepped up a response level in case of any imported cases.

This is the Ebola-Sudanese variant, for which there is no vaccine. It's possible around 25% of people who catch it may have no symptoms, but around 50% of people who have symptoms will not survive. 

Professor Xi Chen of Yale School of Public Health has warned that China currently have such a low rate of vaccination, and so few people have caught COVID, they would face an "Imminent public health crisis" if they allowed COVID to spread at all. They have no choice, they can't give up on Zero COVID, they are far from prepared for it. 

People Get Stupid:

The rise of anti-vaccine sentiment has a knock on effect to all a host of infectious diseases which we currently protect ourselves against by vaccinations. Tragically this is becoming evident in the USA already, outbreaks of Polio (New York) and Measles (Minnesota). 

The reason you don't fear these diseases is because you don't have to.

It is the weekend - Hurrah! It's also a week off for a lot of children, and a week of juggling for parents. Don't try and do too much, slow down and take a breather. Enjoy the Autumn light and the last of the warmth. Winter's coming.

Get Outdoors, Breathe Fresh Air, Save The NHS.

Some people. They look like numbers here, but they are all people.

Officially reported COVID Cases / Losses of life YESTERDAY in the full 24 hours up until midnight GMT:

Sources: 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

Images:

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1582431319778365441?t=9PvO2c-9EOPU9o5Foaa7wQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1582661988768882688?t=U8aqoqJzsxFXzbFN8cJ2FQ&s=19

WHO Quote

https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1581988824460451840?t=ohfDJl7pkWhbIqXIhXCzfg&s=19

https://qualitysafety.bmj.com/content/early/2022/10/11/bmjqs-2022-015291

"New Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announces universal energy price cap will now only last until April as he reverses almost all of Liz Truss' mini-budget" https://twitter.com/i/events/1581955545841471488?t=-fTVvnP2R83cHUPuOqT5-g&s=09

Boris

https://twitter.com/MetroUK/status/1583096075099189249?t=t6WuftHowBWZddJMlQnV1w&s=19

https://twitter.com/BBCHughPym/status/1582441715428134912?t=PkBdLcqbFYKmvAXmzMOSFw&s=19

https://www.astrazeneca.com/what-science-can-do/topics/next-generation-therapeutics/entering-a-new-era-in-vascular-and-cardiac-regeneration-research.html

Severe outcomes

Anti-vax

https://twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1582090161411698688?t=veTm9Xa2CjxxOg2QIvKQ1Q&s=19

Variants

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sars-cov-2-variants-of-public-health-interest/sars-cov-2-variants-of-public-health-interest-9-september-2022

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/xxb-likely-the-most-contagious-variant-of-covid-19-all-you-need-to-know-11666185210408.html

The USA might be about to provide the next exciting COVID variants 

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1580749470580453376?t=-2EioQG440k6e5636-cYPg&s=09

Variants and Winter 

https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/critical-intelligence-unit/sars-cov-2-variants

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1581344011792838656?t=7STXAWthhejfIfhDYGsBjA&s=19

It was World Mental Health Day this week, and I didn't write about it for 2 reasons. Firstly I always worry I'll become a one-trick pony. I can write about my own family's mental health for the next 30 years and not cover what happened in the last 9. Which brings us to the second main reason - my own mental health. 

COVID-19 Coronavirus (and other virussy) UK and World News Update 14th October 2022

World: 629,131,545 reported cases and 6,568,889 losses of life.

The UK NHS has opened up online and phone bookings for the COVID Autumn Boosters today - around 12 million people aged over 50 can now access their jab. Some lucky people will be able to book the double whammy of booster plus flu jab together to save you having to go twice.

Don't say it out loud, but UK hospital admissions with COVID have flattened off this week... shhhhh...

Today's randomly sampled ONS data for the week ending 3rd October for England, and 29th September for Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland:

"The percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase in England and Northern Ireland, increased in Wales, and the trend was uncertain in Scotland.

- England, estimate 1,513,700, equating to 2.78% of the population, or around 1 in 35 people.

- Wales, estimate 74,900, equating to 2.47% of the population, or around 1 in 40 people.

- Northern Ireland, estimate 45,100, equating to 2.46% of the population, or around 1 in 40 people.

- Scotland, estimate 109,700, equating to 2.08% of the population, or around 1 in 50 people.

COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 7th October 2022

World: 625,721,313 reported cases and 6,558,291 losses of life.

UK hospital admissions with COVID are up again - this is steadily increasing guys, and the under-staffed under-appreciated NHS is already feeling the additional pressure. The 7-day average for England is up 33%, with growth across the board ranging between 22% (South West) and 47% (the East). Patients admitted to hospital is up 33%.

We've seen this trend coming, and we've also watched a rise in the number of people being diagnosed with COVID once they're in hospital. That is still rising. Adele Groyer from the COVID Actuaries:

"Another big increase in likely hospital acquired cases in the past week in England - up by 43%.

There were 3,147 such cases in the 7 days to 3 Oct. In the previous week there were 2,197 such cases.

This is the 2nd highest figure in 2022. There were 3,152 from 5 to 11 July."

Yowch. Expect to see hospitals getting stricter on mask-wearing and hand-washing again. 

Bandai have released a brand new range of collectible Star Trek Universe models, and we've been sent the Original Series U.S.S Enterprise star ship (RRP £49.99), and Commander Data collectible figure (RRP £12.99) to review. 

Suitable for age 4 or more, these toys will be just as popular with adult collectors, as they offer good play value, but also look great on a shelf. All of the models come with their own stand, and the range of possible poses is massive - perfect for play or display. 

COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update September 30th 2022

World: 622,586,038 officially reported cases and 6,547,819 losses of life.

Lets start with the bad news. UK figures are "facing an uptick". English hospital admissions are up by almost half on last week (+48%).

According to the COVID Actuaries' maths:

"Regionally, the biggest increases are in SE (up 64%) and Mids (up 58%) but big increases everywhere.

Bed occupancy is up by 37%"

Yowch.

An increase in people arriving in hospital with COVID leads naturally to an increase in 'hospital-acquired' COVID. Adele Groyer of the COVID Actuaries is the expert on this one:

"There were 2,197 such cases in the 7 days to 26 Sept. In the previous week there were 1,133 such cases.

The last time there were over 2,000 likely hospital acquired cases / week was in July."

Yowch. 

Because we no longer routinely test people before they go to hospital, this is a bit of a canary-style early warning, alerting us to the fact there must be higher figures everywhere within the community.