COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 21st October 2022

World: 631 million reported cases and 6.5 million losses of life.

"COVAX did not fail because it was badly designed. We failed because of the greed of the north. We failed because of the greed of the pharmaceutical industry. We failed because of self-interest in certain member states, who were not prepared to share"

Dr Mike Ryan of the World Health Organisation at the World Health Summit 2022.

The UK is still reporting higher numbers of deaths than usual, 10% higher in the latest report for the week ending 7th October.

"Calculated excess deaths (1,031) were significantly higher than the number of deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate (400). This is consistent with the general pattern of recent months."

COVID Actuaries. 

Why? The after-effect of the pandemic is multi-pronged, and although we can say these people probably died because we had a pandemic (and we know some of them died because scans or treatments were delayed), we can't yet seem to openly admit these figures are partly because some people catch COVID and never fully recover. 

An elderly patient with a chest infection has died in an ambulance outside Fairfield Hospital in Bury, Greater Manchester. There were no beds inside to transfer them to, and despite antibiotics and other treatment in the ambulance, they suffered a fatal heart attack.

This was inevitable with patients regularly being held in ambulances in car parks for 8 hours or more, and is horrific for the patient, their relatives and the ambulance staff. 

The British Medical Journal (BMJ) have published a study titled "Nurse staffing and inpatient mortality in the English National Health Service: a retrospective longitudinal study". 

It takes information from "19,287 ward-day observations with information on 4,498 nurses and 66,923 hospital admissions in 53 inpatient hospital wards for acutely ill adult patients for calendar year 2017".

They were looking to see if you were more likely to survive on wards staffed with experienced nurses. No surprises, they found that you were. 

"On average, an extra 12-hour shift by an RN (Registered Nurse) was associated with a reduction in the odds of a patient death of 9.6%. An additional senior RN (in NHS pay band 7 or 8) had 2.2 times the impact of an additional band 5 RN."

So yeah, the reason we pay experienced people more, is because there is no substitute for experience. Sadly our experienced NHS nurses are leaving in droves. They're over-worked, exhausted, disrespected and no end in sight, who can blame them?

This month's UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is attempting to restore worldwide faith in the UK Government and fiscal policy by destroying everything Kwasi Kwarteng did as quickly as possible. Real life Ctrl + Z (the "please God let me undo that" buttons). Sadly this includes the energy price cap. Bizarrely Putin has been rambling on about this too, he thinks placing a cap means you drive demand and meet the cap very quickly, and push prices over the top. Leaving it to fluctuate naturally ends in lower prices all round. In his opinion. 

So, yeah. No universal energy price cap after April in the UK. We have yet to see where that'll take us. Fingers crossed.

(Just ask Robert Peston.)

The UK ONS have released data on reinfections, and 'natural immunity', which looks at the level of infection that protects you in the future. Basically a very mild case of COVID won't give you the same protection as a more severe case. The implication of this is that, as with lots of other infectious diseases, some people will get infection after infection until one day they get it bad. As we know COVID can cause damage each time you get it, it isn't something we really want to catch repeatedly. (I'd be remiss if I didn't mention school children, care home residents, repeat visitors to hospitals and healthcare workers at this point.) 

The UK NHS is preparing for "what could be the worst Winter on record". We're told they are setting up "war rooms" or control hubs as would probably be a more appropriate name. The aim is to have a live view of where we have any vacant beds, in order to find space for as many people as possible (and stop them dying in the hospital car park or being turned away).

As yet we honestly have no idea how bad a Winter we will have, but assuming no measures against COVID, more damp and mold because of increased energy costs, waning immunity after 2 Winters indoors, and a large dose of complacency from the crowd, it is anticipated we may have a very bad year for respiratory infections, pneumonia and flu. Models predict we could even have half the UK's NHS hospital beds filled with people struggling to breathe.

Be sensible, make best use of fresh air and cardigans.

Lurking under the cloud of impending Winter doom, scientists are getting very agitated about which variants will take over - it will make all the difference. Exciting variants include:

- XBB, which is a combination of 2 Omicron variants (BA.2.75 and BJ.1) that is causing a (relatively small) surge in Asia, notably in Singapore and Bangladesh, and Maharashtra in India. It is on paper the most immune-evasive variant yet, although we have yet to see if that will prove true in real life. Early signs are better than predicted at this point.

- BA.2.75.2.

- BQ.1. The USA is experiencing an 'uptick' partly due to BQ.1 (finally, they get their own variant). They also have an issue with BQ.11. Watch this space... 

- BF.7. Belgium gets their own variant too.  

- BA.2.3.20

In the UK BA.2.75.X, BF.7 and BQ.X are all variants which "show evidence of a positive growth rate compared to BA.5". Basically they are low in number at the moment, but all are spreading more rapidly than the rate of our usual Omicron BA.5. Smaller, but faster. The strains currently designated a Variant Of Concern are all of those which start with Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5. 

"From UK data, BQ.X, BA.2.75.2 and BF.7 are the most concerning variants in terms of both growth and neutralisation data at present; there is also supportive animal model data for BA.2.75."

You got all that? Good. This is why I don't spend ages on variants, it's a full time job just to track what's out there. 

Hoax Of The Week:

mRNA vaccines for Heart Regeneration are hitting the news in some quarters (anti-vaxxers). I don't get it? It's like seagulls round chips. Something is public knowledge for years, then someone spots it and drags it out like news, and they all flock. Yes. Pfizer and Moderna and AstraZeneca are all DRUGS MANUFACTURERS. They weren't sitting round waiting for a pandemic, they were busy inventing new and more expensive drugs. 

And no, they haven't given us all something that causes heart damage and then offered us a cure. If they were genius evil villains then they'd be offering us all a cure for all the things COVID can cause, not just one. 

What's the difference in protection if you get your booster? Latest research about severe COVID and hospitalisation is in a new paper published in The Lancet (not yet peer reviewed). They found that using UK NHS figures, between 8th Dec 2020 and 28th Feb 2022:

"16,208,600 individuals completed their primary vaccine schedule and 13,836,390 individuals received a booster dose. Between 20th Dec 2021 and 28th Feb 2022, 59,510 (0·4%) of the primary vaccine group and 26,100 (0·2%) of those who received their booster had severe COVID-19 outcomes. The risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes reduced after receiving the booster (rate change: 8·8 events per 1000 person-years to 7·6 events per 1000 person-years)."

Older adults (≥80 years vs 18–49 years), those with comorbidities, males and people with certain underlying health conditions remained at high risk despite getting their first booster. People who had a COVID infection (at least 9 months before) were at reduced risk of reinfection.

Good news/bad news there. Remember though that we now have bivalent boosters especially designed for Omicron, and before vaccinations the rate of severe COVID was 10 times what it is now. 

Footage is emerging of schoolchildren in China wearing white disposable suits and boarding busses to go to COVID quarantine. 

"A recent preprint purported to show that SARS-CoV-2 is of synthetic origin, but it is so deeply flawed that it wouldn’t pass kindergarten molecular biology."

Kristian G Anderson of the Anderson Lab at Scripps Institute.

He goes to to explain they are getting over-excited about finding small virus mutations which will also occur naturally - and gives examples from the COVID GitHub database.

"The study is a clear example of motivated reasoning with a heavy dose of technobabble to make it sound legitimate - but it’s nothing more than poppycock dressed up as science."

He isn't all mean, he had a kind word for them:

"By all means, analyses such as these are valuable and worth doing - I myself did a bunch back in Jan/Feb, 2020. However, let’s make sure we have an actual scientific approach to them and don’t make up complete nonsense ‘studies’ to try and bolster a preferred narrative."

The US CDC has authorised the Novovax Vaccine as a mix and match booster for Americans aged 18+ who previously had the Pfizer or Moderna jab.

This is a classic vaccine, more similar to the Oxford AstraZeneca jab, and mixing vaccine types has proven more effective time and time again. Novovax is also particularly effective against Omicron B5, and it can be given to people who can't use mRNA vaccines. 

If we do have power cuts (seems likely) then a battery-operated camping lantern is a very safe thing for kids to carry and tends to be less hilarious than a torch. If you use candles then tealights floating in a cereal bowl look very pretty, and when the cat/child/dressing gown sleeve knocks them over, you've a large chance they'll be put out before they hit the floor. Be careful. 

We have more on the ongoing Ebola outbreak in Uganda, and it's taken a turn for the worse. Officials have imposed lockdowns in 2 areas and the US CDC have stepped up a response level in case of any imported cases.

This is the Ebola-Sudanese variant, for which there is no vaccine. It's possible around 25% of people who catch it may have no symptoms, but around 50% of people who have symptoms will not survive. 

Professor Xi Chen of Yale School of Public Health has warned that China currently have such a low rate of vaccination, and so few people have caught COVID, they would face an "Imminent public health crisis" if they allowed COVID to spread at all. They have no choice, they can't give up on Zero COVID, they are far from prepared for it. 

People Get Stupid:

The rise of anti-vaccine sentiment has a knock on effect to all a host of infectious diseases which we currently protect ourselves against by vaccinations. Tragically this is becoming evident in the USA already, outbreaks of Polio (New York) and Measles (Minnesota). 

The reason you don't fear these diseases is because you don't have to.

It is the weekend - Hurrah! It's also a week off for a lot of children, and a week of juggling for parents. Don't try and do too much, slow down and take a breather. Enjoy the Autumn light and the last of the warmth. Winter's coming.

Get Outdoors, Breathe Fresh Air, Save The NHS.

Some people. They look like numbers here, but they are all people.

Officially reported COVID Cases / Losses of life YESTERDAY in the full 24 hours up until midnight GMT:

Sources: 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

Images:

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1582431319778365441?t=9PvO2c-9EOPU9o5Foaa7wQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1582661988768882688?t=U8aqoqJzsxFXzbFN8cJ2FQ&s=19

WHO Quote

https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1581988824460451840?t=ohfDJl7pkWhbIqXIhXCzfg&s=19

https://qualitysafety.bmj.com/content/early/2022/10/11/bmjqs-2022-015291

"New Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announces universal energy price cap will now only last until April as he reverses almost all of Liz Truss' mini-budget" https://twitter.com/i/events/1581955545841471488?t=-fTVvnP2R83cHUPuOqT5-g&s=09

Boris

https://twitter.com/MetroUK/status/1583096075099189249?t=t6WuftHowBWZddJMlQnV1w&s=19

https://twitter.com/BBCHughPym/status/1582441715428134912?t=PkBdLcqbFYKmvAXmzMOSFw&s=19

https://www.astrazeneca.com/what-science-can-do/topics/next-generation-therapeutics/entering-a-new-era-in-vascular-and-cardiac-regeneration-research.html

Severe outcomes

Anti-vax

https://twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1582090161411698688?t=veTm9Xa2CjxxOg2QIvKQ1Q&s=19

Variants

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sars-cov-2-variants-of-public-health-interest/sars-cov-2-variants-of-public-health-interest-9-september-2022

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/xxb-likely-the-most-contagious-variant-of-covid-19-all-you-need-to-know-11666185210408.html

The USA might be about to provide the next exciting COVID variants 

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1580749470580453376?t=-2EioQG440k6e5636-cYPg&s=09

Variants and Winter 

https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/critical-intelligence-unit/sars-cov-2-variants

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1581344011792838656?t=7STXAWthhejfIfhDYGsBjA&s=19

It was World Mental Health Day this week, and I didn't write about it for 2 reasons. Firstly I always worry I'll become a one-trick pony. I can write about my own family's mental health for the next 30 years and not cover what happened in the last 9. Which brings us to the second main reason - my own mental health. 

COVID-19 Coronavirus (and other virussy) UK and World News Update 14th October 2022

World: 629,131,545 reported cases and 6,568,889 losses of life.

The UK NHS has opened up online and phone bookings for the COVID Autumn Boosters today - around 12 million people aged over 50 can now access their jab. Some lucky people will be able to book the double whammy of booster plus flu jab together to save you having to go twice.

Don't say it out loud, but UK hospital admissions with COVID have flattened off this week... shhhhh...

Today's randomly sampled ONS data for the week ending 3rd October for England, and 29th September for Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland:

"The percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase in England and Northern Ireland, increased in Wales, and the trend was uncertain in Scotland.

- England, estimate 1,513,700, equating to 2.78% of the population, or around 1 in 35 people.

- Wales, estimate 74,900, equating to 2.47% of the population, or around 1 in 40 people.

- Northern Ireland, estimate 45,100, equating to 2.46% of the population, or around 1 in 40 people.

- Scotland, estimate 109,700, equating to 2.08% of the population, or around 1 in 50 people.

COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 7th October 2022

World: 625,721,313 reported cases and 6,558,291 losses of life.

UK hospital admissions with COVID are up again - this is steadily increasing guys, and the under-staffed under-appreciated NHS is already feeling the additional pressure. The 7-day average for England is up 33%, with growth across the board ranging between 22% (South West) and 47% (the East). Patients admitted to hospital is up 33%.

We've seen this trend coming, and we've also watched a rise in the number of people being diagnosed with COVID once they're in hospital. That is still rising. Adele Groyer from the COVID Actuaries:

"Another big increase in likely hospital acquired cases in the past week in England - up by 43%.

There were 3,147 such cases in the 7 days to 3 Oct. In the previous week there were 2,197 such cases.

This is the 2nd highest figure in 2022. There were 3,152 from 5 to 11 July."

Yowch. Expect to see hospitals getting stricter on mask-wearing and hand-washing again. 

Bandai have released a brand new range of collectible Star Trek Universe models, and we've been sent the Original Series U.S.S Enterprise star ship (RRP £49.99), and Commander Data collectible figure (RRP £12.99) to review. 

Suitable for age 4 or more, these toys will be just as popular with adult collectors, as they offer good play value, but also look great on a shelf. All of the models come with their own stand, and the range of possible poses is massive - perfect for play or display. 

COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update September 30th 2022

World: 622,586,038 officially reported cases and 6,547,819 losses of life.

Lets start with the bad news. UK figures are "facing an uptick". English hospital admissions are up by almost half on last week (+48%).

According to the COVID Actuaries' maths:

"Regionally, the biggest increases are in SE (up 64%) and Mids (up 58%) but big increases everywhere.

Bed occupancy is up by 37%"

Yowch.

An increase in people arriving in hospital with COVID leads naturally to an increase in 'hospital-acquired' COVID. Adele Groyer of the COVID Actuaries is the expert on this one:

"There were 2,197 such cases in the 7 days to 26 Sept. In the previous week there were 1,133 such cases.

The last time there were over 2,000 likely hospital acquired cases / week was in July."

Yowch. 

Because we no longer routinely test people before they go to hospital, this is a bit of a canary-style early warning, alerting us to the fact there must be higher figures everywhere within the community.

Oops - I'm so late. I am sorry! It's another post on my phone sadly. I do have my laptop, but it's decided not to play 'hotspots' this week and there's no Internet at my Mum's house. We soldier on. 

World: 619,365,299 reported COVID cases and 6,537,109 losses of life.

"We have never been in a better position to end the pandemic - we are not there yet, but the end is in sight."

Dr Tedros, Head of The World Health Organisation - whoop!

Losses of life to COVID have dropped to their lowest levels since March 2020, and although we'll probably never be rid of COVID, we have it under a level of control. Worldwide figures are dropping nicely week on week, so fingers crossed that continues as we head into Winter for the Northern hemisphere.

UK figures are a bit iffy. Hospital admissions are up 17%, but from a fairly low level, so it's not time to worry just yet - keep an eye on it.

 

The new UK Health Secretary Thérèse Coffey has announced plans to fix the NHS. It seems to involve asking more of GPs and pharmacists, and doesn't even mention the fact we are short of 40,000 nurses. They don't just do bedpans Thérèse - we really need them.

In more positive news, she has announced a £500m fund to help pay for the discharge of medically fit hospital patients who need help at home. Around 13,000 of our 100,000 hospital beds have people in them who could go home - with assistance. Where the £500m is coming from is anyone's guess for now... 

Awww. Remember Margaret COVID? Margaret Ferrier is the Scottish MP who Nicola Sturgeon twice accidentally misnamed live on camera, when poorly Margaret went home by train after testing positive. She's been sentenced to 270 hours of community service to pay for her daft error.

Some longer term ONS data on the UK's 'Excess Mortality' has been released, and Adele Groyer of the COVID Actuaries has deciphered it for us.

From March 2020 to June 2022 the ONS estimates 137,447 excess deaths in England & Wales (people who died over the expected average). "However excluding deaths involving Covid, there have been 31,397 FEWER deaths than expected."

COVID takes the weakened and the elderly, meaning less people die from other causes. 

Hot on the heels of the excess mortality, putting COVID to one side - what are we dying from? Well, irregular heartbeat is claiming more people than usual - as are ischaemic heart diseases, diabetes, dementia and Alzheimer's.

It's hard to tell if this is entirely unrelated to COVID, as all of those conditions are seen in people post-COVID, but failing to access prompt medical help can also be a factor in these cases. 

If you need medical assistance - it is there for exactly that reason. Don't be slow to contact your GP or 111 if you have a problem.   

Canada is dropping COVID19 vaccine requirements for international travellers and making their COVID app optional on September 30th. Masks will remain mandatory on planes and trains. 

The World Health Organisation has removed recommendations to use antibody therapies sotrovimab and casirivimab-imdevimab to treat patients with COVID-19, as they just don't seem to be effective against Omicron variants. 

Remdesivir and other treatments are still advised and do still work, so it certainly isn't all bad news.

China is still pursuing zero COVID, and last Sunday there was a terrible bus accident on the way to a quarantine facility. 27 people died. As a result there was a massive online protest against enforced quarantine. "We're on that bus too."

Not COVID, but researchers trialling a new treatment for Motor Neurone Disease have revealed excellent results from trials lasting the last 6 years. One patient was interviewed by Sky News and told how the monthly injections had reversed his progressive muscle weakness so much that he went from needing a wheelchair, to being able to manage at home without even using sticks to walk. 

At the moment it works best on the 2% of patients with a specific (usually inherited) gene mutation, and sadly doesn't have any effect with some other patients, but it really offers hope to all sufferers, and potentially the technology could be used elsewhere, so it is a massive breakthrough.

Another breakthrough, and researchers in Shanghai have developed a mask which can detect incredibly small quantities of COVID in the air, and alert the wearer via their smartphone. Obviously in China it's a bit harder to test it "in the field", so we only have lab results so far, but it can also detect swine flu and bird flu, and can be adapted to detect any other novel repiratory viruses that may arise in the future. This could be incredibly useful in confined spaces such as meetings, transport, lifts etc.

Although overall COVID cases are dropping, we still have to keep an eye on variants, just in case any become bothersome. There doesn't appear to be anything particularly bad making headway, but interesting variants of note include Centaurus and BF.7 - two Omicron strains which seem to be a bit quicker to spread, although neither have made much of a dint in our regular Omicron BA.5 at the moment. 

It is the weekend. I'm meant to be doing a car boot sale, so fingers crossed for some good weather, and my treat might have to wait until I go home - but I'll have earned it. I'm sure you've earned yours too, so don't forget to do something nice for yourself. Not for anyone else, just for you. Have a good weekend! 

Stay Sensible, Get Your Flu Jab, Save The NHS.

Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

https://news.sky.com/story/end-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-sight-world-health-organisation-says-12697360

https://twitter.com/NursingNotesUK/status/1572840502814285825?t=RcxoPoD-1fEriikobFde0A&s=19

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1572928070192865282?t=Od1gZ06vi91kDCqrKfOojg&s=19

https://news.sky.com/story/mp-margaret-ferrier-sentenced-to-270-hours-of-community-service-for-breaching-covid-rules-12696302

https://twitter.com/AdeleGroyer/status/1572195685843496960

https://news.sky.com/story/irregular-heartbeat-likely-to-be-one-of-the-reasons-more-people-than-usual-have-been-dying-this-year-12701948

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-to-drop-covid-19-vaccine-requirement-for-entering-country-on/

https://theconversation.com/the-who-has-advised-against-the-use-of-two-antibody-therapies-against-covid-heres-what-that-means-190787

https://twitter.com/WilliamYang120/status/1572846266828337152?t=ZDHiVb2Ez9Llj_NPRXSrzw&s=19

https://news.sky.com/story/motor-neurone-disease-milestone-treatment-slows-or-even-reverses-progressive-muscle-weakness-study-finds-12702813

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/face-mask-detect-coronavirus-china-b2171033.html

https://fortune.com/well/2022/09/20/bf-7-new-covid-subvariant-rising-in-united-states-us-omicron-centaurus/

Images

https://twitter.com/UKEmbassyBerne/status/1571031199056859137?t=9I1da-uO9Kdedur3_ImrOg&s=19

https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1572867913748545536?t=a4QnhxTh0zI5WmE_8tNOiQ&s=19

COVID-19 Coronavirus (and other virus) UK and World News Update September 16th 2022

A kind of normal report today, covering the last 2 weeks' COVID news. You'll be glad to read that nothing too major or disastrous has visibly occurred on the virus front while focus is elsewhere. 

If you are in the UK then you can now book your Autumn COVID booster jab if you are:

- aged 75 and over

- immunosuppressed

- health & social care workers

Invites will be in the post. 

Remember last year when Scotland's (and Ireland's) COVID cases started going up at the beginning of September because their kids had gone back to school? And the rest if the UK followed the same pattern with a 2 week delay? Well guess what... 

Yep. The very latest ONS random sampling data shows a levelling off and then a 2 week rise in cases in Scotland, and uncertainty in N. Ireland. Cases in England and Wales were already levelling when samples were collected on 5th September. Winter is coming. 

It's been a heck of a month hasn't it? We thought 2 years of COVID was the wrong sort of adrenaline ride, then add on Brexit, stratospheric fuel prices, potential food shortages and visible climate change, and the death of Queen Elizabeth II. The nation is 'in mourning', which affects us all, but some more than others. What it definitely does for everyone, is remind us of our own loved ones.

After a period of not so great health, where age and life caught up with her, an older lady died. She had loved her homeland, her dogs, and her own garden. She also enjoyed trips around the UK and abroad, gathering mementoes to store safely on her return home. She collected stamps and coins, ceramics and expensive teddy bears. She had a lifetime of moments. She saw and learnt far more than she could ever pass on to others. There were tens of thousands of conversations, debates, and smiles at strangers. She didn't go out so much in the final months, and she made a conscious decision about how, and where, she chose to end her days. She left behind a house full of treasures, the most precious of which have little financial value, and a family for whom there will never ever be a replacement.

My Mum's casket wasn't quite so posh as the Queen's lead-lined hand-crafted oak box adorned with flags and jewels. My Mum chose cardboard. I love that. I have a hunch her stamp and coin collection wasn't quite so grand either..