"If we did not act now, then the chances of the NHS being overwhelmed wold be very, very high."
Chris Whitty.
After the news that England are going into a month long national "lockdown" was leaked last night (and apparently it wasn't meant to be this time), Boris had little choice but to hold an England Coronavirus briefing.
He was joined by England's Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty and Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance - (who both looked like the adrenaline is flowing, now they've had the gate opened and can say what they feel instead of biting their tongues).
Obviously they started with evidence from Chris and Pat:
The weekly case rate and rate change slides are grim. The darker they are, the worse they are, and they're dark. Spread in people aged over 60 (who are far more likely to be seriously ill) is everywhere, and the charts for this age group are not light.
The ONS data shows that prevalence has been going up rapidly over the last few weeks (since school reopening), we have around 50k new cases per day and rising.
Measures are slowing growth, but really they are not flattening the curve. The NW seems to be making headway, but not quickly enough.
Cases are rising in all areas, including in people over 60.
Hospital admissions are going up in an accelerating line. Currently in the NW hospital admissions are almost at the peak we saw in Spring, in all other areas, it's rising rapidly. (As soon as you have big numbers, and are still doubling every 9 days, you get to massive numbers very quickly.)
If we do nothing, then by December we are looking at 3,000 hospital admissions a day (and these people don't all arrive and leave, they may be there for weeks).
Boris says "No sensible Prime Minister can ignore these figures." I agree. He explains he doesn't want to close anything, and they hoped that local measures would be effective, but they weren't. He thanked people who have put up with restrictions for a long time (Thanks!).
"We have to be humble in the face of nature." I TOTALLY agree. We are just animals on a rock. We will never be bigger than nature, but we can use our intelligence to fight back...
He explains we DO NOT want to be in a position where Doctors and Nurses are forced to choose who will live, and who will die - and that isn't just COVID patients, it's everyone who ends up in hospital, for whatever reason. (This has happened in many places - Ecuador, Lombardy, New York - and it's truly horrific for anyone involved)...













