By crikey UK flu is making the news worldwide. It's not good, but ignore anything with three exclamation marks!!! and sit yourself down (preferably beside an open window)...

Better than the headlines suggest:

- Some schools are closed to create a firebreak and stem transmissions, and in some cases for a deep clean. This happens, it just doesn’t often make the national news.

- The rates in England at 1,717 patients in a hospital bed each day 2 weeks ago (including 69 in critical care) are a massive 7 times as high as the same point in 2023 (average 243 flu patients a day), but actually only 1.6 times as high as the same week last year (2024 average 1,098 and 39 in critical care). It's bad, but 2023 was a low year, so not a fair comparison. 

- Flu arrived early, and although it's at record-breaking and eye-watering levels FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, with doubling and tripling of hospitalisations week on week, so far it's actually tracking a pretty normal pattern (albeit a month early). Even the UK HSA bulletin says "medium levels". Obviously medical bosses try to plan ahead, so staffing levels and 'free' beds, planned procedures, etc are out of sync, causing extra pressure. 

- As I've previously reported, the human Flu A(H3N2) which we were expecting has mutated or 'drifted' into 'Variant K', which is likely to creep past existing immunity for more people, and means our vaccination isn’t a perfect match. An 'H3N2 year' does tend to create more cases and we've not had one for a couple of years, so immunity is waning a bit, but it is NOT a new flu. 

- We could see more people ill and therefore more people hospitalised, but all evidence suggests Variant K A(H3N2) is NOT more severe or more deadly. Folk aren't dropping like flies, this is NOT an horrendously deadly new superflu.

Honest headlines:

- Australia and some Asian countries had a very long flu season, so while hospitals were not necessarily overwhelmed, numbers for the whole season were much higher (2 weeks ago Australia were still recording confirmed cases, with 441,000 at that point, compared to 363,000 in 2024 and 289,000 in 2023). The long season could be partly because Variant K arrived and kept it going for longer, maybe...

- We are still seeing large number of schoolchildren with flu in the UK, while infections are spreading through older populations, so our 'wave' could be moving more slowly, but only time will answer that. 

- On Tuesday Royal Stoke University Hospital and County Hospital in Stafford declared critical incidents due to sustained high demand, including flu patients. 

On Wednesday a critical incident was declared at 4 more West Midlands hospitals - Good Hope, Heartlands and Queen Elizabeth hospitals in Birmingham, and Solihull Hospital - due to "exceptional" numbers of flu patients.

This is not new. It's demoralising and it's not good, but it’s not unusual when flu levels are high. 

- Latest figures for flu patients in hospital, hospital visits, ambulance requests, GP visits, flu tests are all somewhat obviously, and somewhat normally, soaring. Last week an average 2,660 people were in hospital with flu in England alone every day. Public Health Scotland say the situation isn’t quite as bad, however they had an average 986 flu hospital admissions this week.

My twopenneth:

- It is too early to say if flu will keep rising, carry on for weeks, or just peak and tail off. At this point no-one can declare this an exceptionally bad year, especially not an AI writing clickbait headlines for a national newspaper. That said, it's not started well, so the potential exists. 

- Call me a cynic, and we never want to overwhelm the NHS, but the Government want to stop the resident doctor's strikes. A lot of these headlines are dramatic and scary, they make people feel worried, and it works in the Government's favour.

COVID-19 activity decreased, still baseline levels. RSV activity increased, still baseline levels. 

"Emergency department attendances for influenza-like-illness remained stable", but "influenza-confirmed acute respiratory infection incidents increased". Of influenza viruses subtyped, the majority were A(H3N2).

COVID levels in England are still slowly creeping upward, but remain at a low level. Northern Ireland seems stable and low. In Scotland and Wales they're actually creeping downward, although not in my house they aren't! 

I apologise in advance for any errors or random comments because I do indeed have COVID. Refreshingly it's been over 2 years break, so we'd all recovered from our previous 3-6 monthly regular doses in Manchester. There are tons of 'word of mouth' reports that Stratos variant is rough on the tummy. I believe I can confirm, and I can see why it isn't measurable. We've all had awful tummy ache. A sore, sore belly that makes you unhappy and goes on for days. It's worse after eating, but it's not nice if you're hungry either. We've all also had times where we thought we were recovering, and then the stomachache returns. Aside from those massive differences, it's COVID - shortness of breath, tired, brain fog, cold symptoms, headache, cough, scratchy sore throat.

So, if your children are complaining of tummy ache, but aren't necessarily sick or anything else... 

In the UK the number of people in hospital with respiratory symptoms who test positive for COVID has risen by almost 1/3 in the last fortnight. 

Although that's not good, thankfully we began at low levels, so it is actually still considered relatively 'low' - although you'd hope not to see a rise during Summer and before the kids all go back to school. Latest variants and waning immunity may well be to blame. 

The steady COVID wave is continuing in the US. Hospital admissions were up another 15% last week (on top of 18% 2 weeks ago), with 98,600 new cases reported. Medics and emergency room staff are noting a visible rise and commenting on social media. 

An average 206 people in the US have died from COVID each week this year (227 were reported last week). 

Reporter: "You just announced a new nominee for US Surgeon General who never finished her residency, and is not a practicing physician. So can you explain why you picked her to be America's top doctor?"

Trump: "Because Bobby thought she was fantastic" ... "I don't know her."

Awesome reasoning. 

Dr Casey Means isn't actually licensed to practise medicine, and is currently an online 'wellness influencer'. (I can't understand why Joe Wicks didn't give it a go, he was super popular with his online PE lessons during lockdown.)

In other news, RFK Jr. has (under direct questioning) announced Matthew Buzzelli (a lawyer with almost no public health or medical experience) is the Acting Director of the US CDC.

Anyone nominated to stand as permanent CDC Director can't be Acting Director, so on 24th March, previous Acting Director Dr. Susan Monarez stood down, after being nominated by Trump. 

Mr Buzzelli hasn't exactly been performing his duties, as he's responsible for signing off vaccines and other policies, and communications with the public, some of which have been in limbo since March or April... (I dunno, is this also news to him? His name isn't even on the CDC website...) 

World Health Organisation members, after over 3 years of discussions, have agreed the wording for the legally binding Pandemic Treaty. The draft agreement will be up for consideration (and hopefully accepted) at the upcoming World Health Assembly next month.

This is only the 2nd time such a treaty has been drawn up, the first being a tobacco control agreement in 2003. 

Under terms of the treaty member countries will share data about pathogens swiftly via the Pathogen Access and Benefit-Sharing System (PABS). 10% of vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics will be given to WHO, and another 10% will be supplied at affordable prices.