COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 24th / 25th February 2021.

The UK added 9,985 cases today (under 10,000 for 3 days running, for the first time since September) and now has reported a total of 4,154,562 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 740,717 tests yesterday. 

The counter says 18,691,835 people had been given at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK by midnight last night. 700,718 have received 2 doses (that number should start to fly now, because we have reached the 3 month mark since 1st doses). 

16,059 people were in hospital on Tuesday 23rd, with 2,118 using a ventilator yesterday, 24th Feb.

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 323 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days, making a total of 122,070 losses of life in all settings.

Rep. Of Ireland 216,870 cases and 4,237 losses of life. (Not yet reported today.) 

There have now been a total of 113,316,017 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 2,513,291. Already 88,861,737 people have recovered.

"We are aiming to offer a jab to all adults aged 50 or older and those who are at higher risk due to underlying health conditions by 15 April and every adult by the end of July."
Boris Johnson. UK PM.

Good news, with caution. Remember the 'Alert Levels'?
"Following advice from the Joint Biosecurity Centre and in the light of the most recent data, the 4 UK Chief Medical Officers and NHS England National Medical Director agree that the UK alert level should move from level 5 to level 4 in all 4 nations.
The health services across the 4 nations remain under significant pressure with a high number of patients in hospital. However, thanks to the efforts of the public we are now seeing numbers consistently declining, and the threat of the NHS and other health services being overwhelmed within 21 days has receded.
We should be under no illusions – transmission rates, hospital pressures and deaths are still very high. In time, the vaccines will have a major impact and we encourage everyone to get vaccinated when they receive the offer. However, for the time being it is really important that we all – vaccinated or not – remain vigilant and continue to follow the guidelines.
We know how difficult the situation has been and remains to be for healthcare workers. We thank them for their immense effort, skill and professionalism throughout the pandemic."

UK Briefing Education Special with Gav 24th Feb 2021

Cases: 4,144,577 (+9,938)
Losses of life: 121,747 (+442)
In hospital: 16,803 (down 20% from a week earlier)
Using a ventilator: 2,273
First dose vaccination: 18,242,873
Second dose: 669,105

"Today is the culmination of many months of planning, research, negotiation & coordination. But it's just the beginning. We still have a lot of work to do to realize our shared vision for Vaccine Equity by starting vaccination in all countries within the first 100 days of the year."
Dr Tedros of the World Health Organisation this morning, as the first COVAX shipment of 600,000 vaccines arrived in Ghana. 

Public Health England have added more people to vaccine priority groups:
“JCVI supports the plan to invite anyone on the GP Learning Disability Register – as well as adults with other related conditions, including cerebral palsy – for vaccination as part of priority group 6.”
This is presumably a result of their comprehensive computer programme algorithm - it has highlighted people who are significantly more vulnerable to COVID than we realised before (or were willing to admit. Common sense and logic suggested a few of them).
The cynic in me also adds that every adult we label "vulnerable" (and there are genuinely a lot), can justifiably be vaccinated as priority. It eases the conscience and pressure from the world, over vaccinating UK general population before other countries even get their health workers jabbed. It's a bit naughty - and they know it.
Invites will go out immediately it's possible, according to supply of vaccine in your area. 

COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 22nd / 23rd February 2021.

The UK added 8,489 cases today and now has reported a total of 4,134,639 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 670,560 tests yesterday.

The counter says 17,916,181 people had been given at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK by midnight last night. 642,788 people have had 2 doses.

16,797 people were in hospital on Sunday 21st, with 2,273 using a ventilator yesterday, 22nd Feb. 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 548 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days, making a total of 121,305 losses of life in all settings.

Office for National Statistics report that up until Friday 12th February, 135,613 people had COVID listed as a cause on their death certificate in the UK. 

Nation / Cases / Losses of life
Wales 202,324 / 7,204
Scotland 198,839 / 9,046
Northern Ireland 111,391 / 2,672
England 3,622,085 / 116,619

Rep. Of Ireland 215,743 cases and 4,137 losses of life. (Not yet reported today.) 

There have now been a total of 112,458,095 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 2,490,418. Already 88,020,066 people have recovered.

England Step 1

"We often hear people described as ordinary Americans. There's no such thing. There's nothing ordinary about them. The people we’ve lost to COVID-19 were extraordinary."
US President Joe Biden

Thankfully, after all of the news yesterday, today is a slower day. There's a lot of dissection of the UK roadmap online, and I'm sure more will follow, but generally it seems to be favoured by most. A snap YouGov poll this morning found 26% think it goes too fast, 46% think it is about right and 16% think it goes too slow.

Boris UK Road Map Out Of Lockdown Briefing 22nd Feb 2021

Cases: 4,126,150 (+10,641)
Losses of life: 120,757 (+178)
In hospital: 18,462 (18th Feb)
Using a ventilator: 2,469 (19th Feb)
First vaccination: 17,723,840
Second dose: 624,325

BIG real world data released today by Public Health England shows a really good reduction in cases among populations vaccinated with the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine. There isn't yet enough data on the Oxford vaccine for an 'early data' report, because we started using that later, but it'll be along shortly and looks just as good so far...
"Early data from PHE’s SIREN study shows a promising impact on infection in healthcare workers aged under 65. Healthcare workers in the study are tested for coronavirus (COVID-19) every 2 weeks – whether or not they have symptoms." This data shows:
"One dose reduces the risk of catching infection by more than 70%, rising to 85% after the second dose."
We also have really good early data for our older friends and family:
- One dose is 57% effective against symptomatic COVID-19 disease in those aged over 80. This effect occurs from about 3 to 4 weeks after the first dose.
- Early data suggests the second dose in over 80s improves protection against symptomatic disease by a further 30%, to more than 85%.
- Hospitalisation and deaths rates are falling in all age groups – but the oldest age groups are seeing the fastest decline since the peak in mid-January.
- Those over 80 who develop COVID-19 infection after vaccination are around 40% less likely to be hospitalised than someone with infection who has not been vaccinated.
Very importantly: These high levels of protection are also seen against the variant of concern (B.1.1.7) first identified in South East England in December 2020. (That's the more transmissible Kent/UK variant B117 which accounts for over 80% of UK cases now.)

"The Prime Minister will today set out the government’s roadmap for cautiously easing lockdown restrictions in England" was the announcement this morning. We really need to go by data, and not set hopeful dates that we can't step back from...
The 4 main factors, or 'tests', they will consider are:
1. The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully.
2. Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.
3. Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
4. Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern (including anything with that pesky E484K mutation which is more resilient to antibodies).
As these 4 tests (which they just made up, and I'll be honest, seem pretty erm... 'loose') are being met, reopening is due to start March 8th as planned. This date was chosen because it is 3 weeks after the top priority groups in Phase 1 should have had their first vaccine dose, so the vast majority who are especially vulnerable or over 60 should have a healthy degree of immunity.

COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Weekend Update 20th / 21st February 2021.

The UK added 9,834 cases today and now has reported a total of 4,115,509 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 560,400 tests yesterday. 

The counter says 17,582,121 people had been given at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK by midnight last night. 615,148 people are fully vaccinated (2 doses).

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 215 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days, making a total of 120,580 losses of life in all settings.

Rep. Of Ireland 214,378 cases and 4,135 losses of life. (Not yet reported today.) 

There have now been a total of 111,817,847 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 2,475,106. Already 87,118,682 people have recovered.

“I want to see the rollout go further and faster in the coming weeks.
We will now aim to offer a jab to every adult by the end of July, helping us protect the most vulnerable sooner, and take further steps to ease some of the restrictions in place.”
Boris Johnson, UK Prime Minister.

Well, I think we saw that one coming...

COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 19th February 2021.

The UK added 12,027 cases today and now has reported a total of 4,095,269 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 560,400 tests yesterday. 

The counter says 16,875,536 people had been given at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK by midnight last night. 589,591 people have had both doses (fully vaccinated). 

19,392 people were in hospital on 17th Feb (down from 24,352 a week earlier), with 2,535 using a ventilator yesterday, 18th February (down from 3,036 a week earlier). 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 533 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days, making a total of 119,920 losses of life in all settings.

The ONS record deaths of people who had COVID listed as a cause. Up until Friday 5th February this included 129,498 people.

Rep. Of Ireland 212,647 cases and 4,082 losses of life. (Not yet reported today.) 

There have now been a total of 111,040,682 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 2,457,011. Already 85,941,244 people have recovered.

All of the UK TV networks have come together to present a new video, and it's a star-studded tear-jerker. Lots of well-known people from different ethnic backgrounds and UK communities bust all of the most copy-pasted myths, and then prove just how human they are by telling us which of their loved ones have been vaccinated. An informative and poignant 3 minutes which actually does make you feel proud of what we've been through and how far we've come over the past year, but so very sad that it ever happened. You can find it by searching #takethevaccine  

Northern Ireland have extended their lockdown until April 1st. This happened yesterday,  but I failed to copy it across,  so apologies to anyone in NI.
Primary school pupils in year groups P1 to P3 return in person on March 8.
Secondary pupils in exam years 12 to 14 return in person on March 22.
"Click and collect" shopping rules will also relax a little, to allow more items to be sold.
The situation will be reviewed on March 18th.

I also lost a couple of other things I wrote for yesterday, including the US vaccination stuff. I rewrote quickly and cleverly used the total US population instead of 'doses'. Doh. The US has vaccinated really well, but not quite 330m doses, or 'exactly 1 per person' -  they've actually administered around 58m at this point. 

COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 17th / 18th February 2021

The UK added 12,057 cases today and now has reported a total of 4,083,242 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 578,844 tests yesterday. 

The counter says 16,423,082 people had been given at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK by midnight last night. 573,724 people are fully vaccinated (2 doses). 

20,156 people were in hospital on Tuesday 16th Feb, with 2,614 using a ventilator yesterday, 17th Feb. 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 454 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days, making a total of 119,387 official losses of life in all settings.

Rep. Of Ireland 211,751 cases and 4,036 losses of life. (Not yet reported today.) 

There have now been a total of 110,665,124 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 2,445,927. Already 85,538,983 people have recovered.

Northern Ireland only!

The UK government is leading the call for a worldwide ceasefire, to enable vaccinations to take place safely. It is in the world's best interest, as well as those countries involved.
Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab today made the request official at the UN Security Council meeting. 

Today in the UK £18.5m was announced to fund 4 research studies which hope to identify the causes and potential treatments for Long COVID, and the effects on both physical AND mental health.
"Approximately 1 in 10 people with COVID-19 continue to experience symptoms beyond 12 weeks."

"Long COVID can present with clusters of symptoms that are often overlapping and/or fluctuating. A systematic review has highlighted 55 different long-term effects but common symptoms of long COVID include breathlessness, headaches, cough, fatigue and cognitive impairment or ‘brain fog’. There is also emerging evidence that some people experience organ damage."
You don't even have to be sick enough to need hospital to find yourself suffering with Long COVID, and it will have a massive effect going forward. We still have no real idea how many people, of all ages, will have some permanent health changes.

COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 15th / 16th February 2021.

The UK added 10,625 cases today and now has reported a total of 4,058,468 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 457,144 tests yesterday.

The counter says 15,576,107 people had been given at least one dose of a vaccine in the UK by midnight last night. 546,165 people are fully vaccinated.

21,001 people were in hospital on Sunday 14th (down from 26,723 a week earlier), with 2,805 using a ventilator yesterday, 15th February (down from 3,230 a week earlier). 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 799 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days, making a total of 118,195 losses of life in all settings.

Rep. Of Ireland 211,113 (+711) cases and 3,980 (+32) losses of life.

There have now been a total of 109,865,149 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 2,423,838. Already 84,451,577 people have recovered.

"The previous shielding guidance extended until 21 February. It will now be extended until 31 March."
This is the final line of the release about changes to the English shielded category, and I know it will be a kick in the shin for a lot of you. Remember shielding is there to keep you safe until we can all come out. The last leg is always the longest and the hardest to run.

It's February. I don't know about you, but for me this year January seemed considerably shorter. Usually it's my quietest time on the blog, I get about 3 months before Spring toys start coming in, to recuperate after the pre-Christmas madness. This year it's different. The pre-Christmas madness was massively subdued. The post-Christmas lull is bringing as much COVID news (possibly more) as before, and there's a danger it all feels a bit of a samey blah... 

It's too easy to just roll through the days, tick, tick, tick, without having things to enjoy, things to try, things to create. Just because we are in lockdown, doesn't mean you should sleepwalk through it until the end. If you do, you miss a million opportunities to actually create any memories, and all you are left with is the mundane... tick... tick... tick...

UK Coronavirus Briefing UK 15th Feb 2021

Cases: 4,047,843 (+9,765)
Losses of life: 117,396 (+230)
In Hospital: 23,341 (Thurs 11th)
Using a Ventilator: 2,943 (Fri 12th)
Vaccination First Dose: 15,300,151
Vaccination Second Dose: 539,630

News today is that Nicola Sturgeon is not happy about the idea of people arriving in England and then travelling into Scotland - thereby avoiding their universal hotel quarantine for all arrivals from outside the UK.

The media isn't happy about the fact England doesn't appear to have a system in place for the first minutes after new arrivals from Red List countries get here - they have to wander through the airport with everyone else, before being bussed to their hotel quarantine. 

Today's UK briefing was with Journalist Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, and scientists Professor Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer for England, and Sir Simon Stevens of NHS England.

Boris started with a vaccination update, and we have vaccinated over 15m people. He thanks everyone involved - including Pharmacists. He reminds us we cannot relax. We've vaccinated over 90% of those most at risk, but don't forget over 60% of hospital patients are under 70.
We still have more people in hospital than at the height of the first peak. Admissions are running at 1,600 a day.

Vaccination groups 5 and 6 - All those over 65, adult carers and those who have underlying health conditions, will be getting their letters first in Phase 2 - 1m letters went out today.
IF we can keep supply steady we hope to offer a first vaccination to everyone over 50 by the end of April, as well as delivering "millions of 2nd doses to the most vulnerable within 12 weeks of the first".

"We must be both optimistic, but also patient.... and next week I will be setting out a road map, showing as much as we possibly can, about the route to normality, and even though some things are very uncertain. Because, we want this lockdown to be... the last. And we want progress to be cautious, but also irreversible."

Chris with the slides.
The numbers of new cases are coming down steadily, but still above the level in September last year.
The number of people in hospital is STILL higher than at the April peak.
The most recent 7-day average is 657 people succumbed. This is still very high.

Chris talks about vaccinations. Remember it won't start to work for 2-3 weeks, and when you are asked to go back for the 2nd dose YOU MUST DO SO. The 2nd dose will make it work better and be much longer lasting.
We know vaccination DOES reduce transmission, so vaccinating people helps protect everyone else as well. He adds that once we have a large number of the community vaccinated, that halts transmission too (it acts like roadblocks), bringing cases down and protecting those who haven't yet been vaccinated even further.

Sir Simon Stevens talks about vaccinations. He says it's 2 sprints and a marathon. The first sprint is almost over, the second sprint of 11 weeks is about to start. (The marathon will be the 'everyone else' - which sounds more like the bit of the marathon after the elite runners have gone, and everyone left is wearing fancy dress and waving).
1. If you've been offered vaccination and haven't yet accepted, you still can, just get in touch.
2. 2nd doses need to happen, this will mainly be early to mid March. You will return to the same location for your second dose.
3. 1st doses for groups 5 and 6 need to happen. People aged over 65. People aged 16-64 with underlying conditions, those who live in care, and adult carers.
Firstly most people are being offered jabs in large centres and pharmacists, but if this doesn't suit you, you can go elsewhere, you won't lose your jab. People with complex situations or additional needs may be contacted directly by their GP, rather than have the jab in a less familiar setting. Chris asks that we help those with mental health issues to access their jab, and ensure they get it done. 

Chris explains that we may need 'booster jabs' because of variants (that pesky E484K). We have no idea whether this would have to be everyone, or those at highest risk, or how often it would have to happen. It does look like we might need one this Autumn/Winter because of there being several variants around that might 'escape' the vaccination (variants with that pesky E484K mutation).
Bear in mind COVID is still running rampant through millions of people. Once that slows down, development of new mutations will also slow down. It's been running at breakneck speed for the last few months - COVID has passed through a lot of host bodies... 

Press asked about mental health. Boris sounded very sincere, and clearly appreciates that everyone is struggling a bit right now. There's really not a lot he can do to just fix that. (I think we're aware the infrastructure isn't in place - and I think they'll have to address that very carefully, and swiftly.)

Despite being able to dress themselves, a member of the press asked for a guarantee it would be the last lockdown. Boris made his answer very clear. He CANNOT give any guarantee about anything. 

I dunno, he's either a great actor or a man genuinely a bit beaten down. (Get out in the fresh air Boris. Look for Spring - it's coming.)

Boris says he's not going to talk about the roadmap until next week as planned, and speculate however you want, it isn't happening unless you hear it from him.
Chris adds that we can look at data from Israel as a guide to planning, (they've vaccinated more than we have, and also have the Kent variant B117) but we can't say any definites yet.
Boris: 'We know it's going to work, but it's the speed it works we don't know.'

Chris reminds us we have improved drugs and treatments, social distancing measures, vaccinations. It's hoped that vaccinations will 'take most of that weight'. The effects of all of this together may get COVID down to zero, but more likely to very low levels. We may be able to stop all restrictions once and for all, or we may need to leave social distancing a bit longer, or use it at certain times (e.g. when cases appear in our area/over Winter). WE DON'T YET KNOW. 

Press asked about health and social care workers who have not taken up the offer of a vaccination. Sir Simon and Chris said it isn't just people who have decided against, a lot of people may not take it up immediately, but may come back to it, or get around to it. (These are people who work shifts and lead busy lives.)

Chris with a vaccine reminder:
"The risks of the vaccine are MASSIVELY lower than the risks of getting this infection, and the vaccine will protect from this infection... and in the long run, that is the way we actually need to combat this disease, is by the much safer route of vaccination... rather than the very significant risks that go with this infection for many people."

Boris is asked about 'Vaccine Passports'. Clearly Boris is all for this, but not so much for arrivals to the UK. He starts on about live theatre and all those things we enjoy, and his dream of daily lateral flow testing.
Chris says we hope to see the effect of the vaccinations on all of the figures. You can see it in Israel already, in the UK we are beginning to see a slight difference, but we can't 'properly evaluate' for another week or two. 

Press asked about 'the USA asking for more transparency from China over the origins of COVID'. Boris talks about general agreements and a 'global treaty' which agrees to provide all available data asap on any potential zoonotic disease outbreak (other animal to human animal). 

As I said at the weekend, it's now over a year since I told you my estimates for how many people COVID could make seriously ill. They were taken from publicly supplied Chinese data, and they weren't far wrong. Whether China told us everything or not, they told us plenty to be going on with. They were disinfecting the blinking streets in white paper boiler suits and building a 4,000 bed temporary hospital on livestream for goodness sake. The clues were all there...

Back tomorrow with the regular UK/world news update! You stay well. 

Sources:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-care-home-and-healthcare-settings-posters/covid-19-vaccination-first-phase-priority-groups