COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update and UK Briefing 23rd December 2020.

The UK added 39,237 cases today. 

20,917 people were in hospital on Monday 21st, with 1,529 using a ventilator yesterday, 22nd December. 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 744 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days, bringing the total to 69,051 officially reported losses of life in all settings.

There have now been a total of 78,692,150 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,730,347. Already 55,354,162 people have recovered.

Very bad news today as some more of the UK will move to Tier 4 restrictions from Boxing Day. Also special instructions for visitors to/from South Africa. 

The lorry driver thing has come to an agreement - yeeeay. Last night France agreed to let limited traffic through, including long distance hauliers:
"Planes, boats and Eurostar trains will resume service as of tomorrow morning. French nationals, people living in France and those with a legitimate reason will have to be carrying a negative test" - French Minister Delegate for Transport, Jean-Baptiste Djebbari.
He had a big thank you too, for Grant Shapps, the UK Transport Minister. He must have done something right. Well done Grant.
The Army arrived to help with testing this morning, but the bad news is that it's going to take days to clear the backlog completely - everything would have been fully booked. Get those people tested!! Get them home for Christmas... 

Bizarrely some papers are reporting this as "Macron caves in after being ordered to open the border"... errr. Wow. Not exactly, no. The European Commission has now said no country should impose a blanket ban on the UK, but France had never shown any wish to keep it closed, they were just rightfully getting some back up on what the heck to do. 

Lorry drivers need a negative PCR swab test or a LAMP / lateral flow test result which is effective in spotting the new UK Strain. With some tests 1 of the 3 areas currently looked for is missing in the new UK variant, so you'll get more false negatives.
That's a perfect example of sod's law.

 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 22nd December 2020.

The UK added 36,804 cases today (up from 18,450 a week earlier) and now has reported a total of 2,110,314 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 423,675 tests yesterday. 

18,943 people were in hospital on Friday 18th, with 1,364 using a ventilator also on Friday 18th December. 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 691 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 68,307 officially reported losses of life in all settings.

Up until Friday December 11th, a total of 79,349 people had COVID as a cause of death on their death certificate. 

Rep. Of Ireland 80,267 cases and 2,158 losses of life. (Not yet reported today.) 

There have now been a total of 78,045,694 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,715,901. Already 54,856,475 people have recovered.

Most of the Western world has now imposed a ban on UK arrivals, including France, who have a 48 hour bar on humans crossing the border. 

Hundreds of lorries are parked on disused Manston Airport in Kent, and hundreds more have been stacked on the M20 J11-9, ready to move to Manston. Estimates earlier were that around 1,500 lorries and drivers in total are currently waiting to cross to France..
A decision on what happens next is expected before 11pm tonight. 

Northern Ireland last night advised against all but essential travel to and from Great Britain / Republic of Ireland, with immediate effect. They are keeping the situation under review, but so far have not actually barred travel.
The situation will be kept under review and further updates will be provided.

It goes without saying, but if you had any plans to leave the UK, or return, you may no longer be able to travel, and your plans will be affected. Contact your airline or travel provider. 

Panic buying doesn't appear to have actually occurred in any significant amount *phew*. It would be tragic to think people would be throwing out 15 soggy cucumbers next week, when someone else's Christmas Day gin is ruined.
Why would anyone panic buy lettuce?
Just cos. 

The English government's next Tier review is due for 30th December, and it seems very likely that at least 44 areas currently in Tier 2 or Tier 3 will move to Tier 4, as they now have higher numbers than Hertfordshire. Areas most at risk are Burnley and Lincoln.

MENCAP have produced an easy to read visual online leaflet with the Tier 4 stay-at-home guidance. 

President Bolsonaro of Brazil said on Saturday that people were idiots for getting vaccinated because the pandemic is almost over, and as Pfizer are not responsible for any side effects, "If you become an alligator, it is your problem". For reference, he also said COVID wouldn't bother him because he's "an athlete". 
Brazil have lost over 187,000 people to COVID, including 549 yesterday alone. 

Antarctica has COVID. It was the world's only remaining continent free of the disease, but media are reporting that up to 36 people from the Chilean Army base 'General Bernardo O'Higgins Riquelme' (snappy name) tested positive for the virus on Monday.

One of the mutations in the new COVID variant affects one of three targets used by some of the PCR tests. This means that with those tests, we could get a higher percentage of false negatives. They're on it. 

Latest ONS (Office for National Statistics) figures were high, but going the correct way. Sadly we know that even at just 10 days delay, they're already out of date, and the picture is not as good.
"The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 11 December 2020 (Week 50) was 12,292; this was 11 fewer deaths than in Week 49.
In Week 50, the number of deaths registered was 14.3% above the five-year average (1,542 deaths higher).
Of the deaths registered in Week 50, 2,756 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", accounting for 22.4% of all deaths in England and Wales, a decrease of 79 deaths compared with Week 49; this is the second consecutive decrease."
"Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths up to 11 December 2020 was 579,491, which is 67,864 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 11 December 2020, 72,546 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. This is 12.5% of all deaths in England and Wales."

From tomorrow 90 members of the Army will be assisting the Welsh Ambulance Service as drivers. Wales are struggling a bit and this should help relieve pressure on services.

There are some comments floating around about the new UK COVID strain being more transmissible by children. They are only comments at the moment, no evidence, and certainly positive rates among children have gone up, but don't forget that over the last few weeks, for a lot of households, only the children have gone out and mixed. Children are also regularly asymptomatic, so were tested far, far less often than UK adults until recently. Studies are ongoing. 

The US had vaccinated 272,000 people by Saturday morning. 6 have had a severe allergic reaction. People in the UK who have a history of severe allergic reactions are advised NOT to accept the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine for now. All patients have recovered (the best time to have any severe allergic reaction is when you're already in a hospital). 

Marcus Rashford won a special award at last Night's Sportsperson Of The Year Awards, for his charity work. He has given it to his Mum. 

Taiwan has reported their first locally transmitted case in 253 days. Darnit. They've responded includes cancelling all outdoor gatherings at Christmas Land in New Taipei City. Bah humbug COVID. 

Scientists are cute. They absolutely will not say something for definite unless they have undeniable proof. One of the heads of BioNTech, Ugur Sahin, was asked at a press conference if his vaccine would work against the new UK strain:
“We don't know at the moment, if our vaccine is also able to provide protection against this new variant, but scientifically it is highly likely that the immune response by this vaccine also can deal with the new virus.”
"“The vaccine contains more than 1270 amino acids, and only 9 of them changed, so that means 99% of the protein is still the same.”
I think those are probably the best odds we've seen all year. They are, just to be sure, already conducting lab tests to see if it's reduced efficacy and should have results within a fortnight. 

 UK Students who decided to stay at uni for Christmas have been sharing photos of amazing Christmas dinners they've cooked for their housemates. My daughter cooked her housemates Christmas Dinner the other day. I'm proud to say she contacted me to ask how to make fluffy crispy roasties. (For parents with younger kids, this is the same level of pride you feel when they say a new word).

The Sikh community living in Gravesend in Kent have come together this afternoon to make 800 hot meals for the lorry drivers stuck in Dover. You blooming stars. Thank you. 

If you have a medium or bigger frozen turkey you may need to get it out now to defrost it. You're welcome. 

I plan to be back tomorrow with a short update report, hopefully no unexpected news, but we should have an agreement on international travel, at least within the EU. Fingers crossed the UK situation settles, but there are no guarantees. 

Keep your own self safe, and behave as if you have the virus, to help keep everyone else safe. And open a window...

Some numbers. All were their parent's most precious gift:

Countries / Cases / Losses of life (in larger countries some states /provinces have yet to report today):

USA 18,503,777 (+30,061) 327,327 (+555) 

India 10,097,581 (+22,159) 146,438 (+293)

Brazil 7,284,166 (+19,945) 187,685 (+363)

Russia 2,906,503 (+28,776) 51,912 (+561)

France 2,479,151 Not yet reported today 60,900

UK 2,110,314 (+36,804) 68,307 (+691)

Turkey 2,062,960 (+19,256) 18,602 (+251)

Italy 1,977,370 (+13,318) 69,842 (+628)

Spain 1,830,110 not yet reported today 49,260

Germany 1,548,342 (+14,226) 27,832 (+535)

Mexico 1,325,915 (+5,370) 118,598 (+396)

Poland 1,214,525 (+7,192) 25,783 (+309)

Iran 1,170,743 (+6,208) 54,003 (+187) 

Ukraine 979,506 (+8,513) 16,897 (+232)

Netherlands 710,683 (+9,810) 10,633 (+114)

Indonesia 678,125 (+6,347) 20,257 (+172)

Czechia 635,414 (+7,860) 10,562 (+55)

Belgium 626,911 (+981) 18,697 (+71)

Romania 598,792 (+5,009) 14,636 (+155)

Canada 519,699 (+4,385) 14,380 (+48)

Switzerland 418,266 (+4,275) 6,864 (+83)

.

.

Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-22/coronavirus-cases-confirmed-in-antarctica/13007596

MENCAP easy to read Tier 4 guidance: 

https://www.mencap.org.uk/sites/default/files/2020-12/Tier%204%20guidance.pdf

https://twitter.com/i/events/1341057351667884032

https://metro.co.uk/2020/12/22/army-drafted-to-help-welsh-ambulance-service-cope-with-extreme-pressure-13790428/amp/

https://twitter.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1341032367641780227?s=19

https://nypost.com/2020/12/19/brazilian-prez-bolsonaro-claims-covid-vaccine-could-turn-people-into-alligators/amp/

https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1341303838008094722?s=19

https://twitter.com/WilliamYang120/status/1341294512836988929?s=19

https://twitter.com/niexecutive/status/1341190192728838144

https://twitter.com/mencap_charity/status/1341020517298520065?s=19

https://twitter.com/i/events/1341380195366813696

https://www.quora.com/q/coronavirus?__ni__=0&__nsrc__=4&__snid3__=15355329435&__tiids__=17715190

https://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2020-12-22/sikh-community-prepare-hot-meals-for-stranded-lorry-drivers-on-m20

https://twitter.com/RaviSinghKA/status/1341379881301647363

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending11december2020

 There's so much happening, so quickly, I've done an extra report today:

COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update and UK Briefing 21st December 2020.

The UK added 33,364 cases today, and officially reported the loss of another 215 people (Monday figures are usually low because of weekend reporting).  

18,771 people were in hospital on Thursday 17th, with 1,364 using a ventilator on Friday 18th December. 

Dr Mike Ryan of the World Health Organisation:
"The lessons I've learnt after so many Ebola outbreaks in my career are:
- Be Fast
- Have No Regrets
- You must be the first mover.
The virus will always get you if you don't move quickly. And you need to be prepared. And I say this (he's Irish), one of the great things in emergency response, and anyone who is involved with emergency response will know this:
If you need to be right before you move, you will never win.
Perfection is the enemy of the good when it comes to emergency management.
Speed trumps perfection.
And the problem in society that we have at the moment, is everyone is afraid making a mistake, everyone is afraid of the consequence of error. But the greatest error is not to move. The greatest error is to be paralysed by the fear of failure." 

 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Weekend Update 20th December 2020.

The UK added 35,928 cases today and now has reported a total of 2,040,147 positive cases of COVID-19. 

18,771 people were in hospital on Thursday 17th, up from 16,531 a week earlier. We had 1,364 people using a ventilator on Friday 18th, up from 1,275 a week earlier. 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 326 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have an official total of 67,401 losses of life in all settings.

Rep. Of Ireland 79,542 (+766) cases and 2,158 (+4) losses of life. 

There have now been a total of 76,914,030 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,696,536. Already 53,948,365 people have recovered.

The new COVID variant which has caused such a nightmare in England has also been spotted in South Africa, and in older samples from Australia and Denmark. We know Australia locked down thousands of people last week over 17 standard cases, so we can see how they managed to stop it dead. Denmark so far have found only 1 case of the new strain, at the beginning of December. 

The Netherlands were the first country to impose restrictions on arrivals from the UK. Air passengers are barred until January 1st at the earliest.

 UK Coronavirus Emergency Briefing 19/12/20

It's bad news. You may want to sit down. 

- Across all of England, Scotland and Wales the Christmas relaxation has been reduced to Christmas Day only.
- The areas of London, the South East and the East which are heavily affected by the new virus strain will move to Tier 4 (the same as the lockdown in November).
- People should not enter or leave Tier 4 areas.
- People in Tier 4 areas must not stay overnight away from home or mix with other households, even on Christmas Day. 

The UK Government have been holding emergency meetings since last night because case numbers in parts of London and the South West are really flying. They're rising incredibly quickly. (I personally think it's possible parts of Wales e.g. Merthyr Tydfil could also be in this position.)
With the same restrictive measures as other areas, we aren't getting the same effect. The situation has changed rapidly over the last 48 hours.
We do know there is a strain of COVID that has appeared there which is different. It has a better ability to lock onto it's target. It's definitely beginning to look like it could be easier to transmit - or else everyone in these areas is holding secret choir practise. It could be as much as 1 1/2 times as catchy.
Even a tiny bit more makes a big difference when you have high numbers, so whatever change there is will be amplified.
Left to run free, we think everyone with COVID on average usually infects around 3 to 4 others. Restrictions try to bring that number, the R or Reproductive Number, down below 1.
English Tier 2 restrictions almost universally have failed to do this. In some areas Tier 3 aren't doing it either.
If the new strain is even more catchy, we need to come down really hard, or we will have an explosion of cases incredibly quickly.
Running out of hospital beds over Christmas and New Year would be a disaster. Exponential spread over Christmas and New Year would mean January would be hell on Earth. 

Also a disaster for any country would be to let a more transmissible strain out. Just imagine for one second that any other country had that strain - Germany,  Russia, Namibia, Taiwan, anywhere. If they found it and knew it existed, didn't act swiftly and it managed to escape, the rest of the world would be furious. It would also lead to potentially many thousands of extra people having to live the rest of their lives without someone they loved. 

 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 18th December 2020.

The UK added 28,507 cases today and now has reported a total of presumably 1,977,167 positive cases of COVID-19. (The UK dashboard broke at this point, so I can't be sure what total they've given.) 

18,469 people were in hospital on Wednesday 16th (up from 16,136 a week earlier), with 1,340 using a ventilator also on Wednesday.

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 489 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 66,541 officially reported losses of life in all settings.

Rep. Of Ireland 78,254 (+576) cases and 2,149 (+6) losses of life. 

There have now been a total of 75,641,366 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,674,733. Already 53,089,262 people have recovered.

On Wednesday there were just 10 critical care beds empty in the whole of Wales. Surge capacity has been put into place, but the situation is very tenuous. Part of the problem is staff members are also ill or isolating, so overall capacity is reduced. Either way, if there's no bed or no-one to staff it, there's no bed.

Northern Ireland will have a strict lockdown after Christmas. The Christmas bubbles 23-27 December (with an extra travel allowance of 1 day either end if necessary) can remain, but this is the only mixing between households allowed until 2nd January. 
From Boxing Day for 1 week until 2nd January:
- non-essential retail and close contact services close.
- hospitality will be take away / delivery only
- essential retail / business must close overnight 8pm - 6am
- no household mixing indoors or out, including exercise
- no sporting events, including elite sportspeople
After the initial week, for another 5 weeks:
- non-essential retail and close contact services close. (This will be strict e.g. no click & collect or homewares.)
- hospitality will be take away / delivery only
- Sales of alcohol to take home 8am -8pm only.
- Childcare bubbles can resume
Schools will reopen as planned. There will be a review after 4 weeks.
Yesterday Northern Ireland's Chief Medical Officer Dr Michael McBride said that there have only been 5 days since 21st October when the hospital occupancy has been below 95%.

Wales have already announced a strict lockdown for the same time period. 

Scotland are expected to also impose extra restrictions after Christmas. A decision will be made on Tuesday. 

England, pfft, who knows. Probably we'll all have to commit to buying 12 frothy Coffees, 3 suitcases of sale clothing and a room full of housewares, and then we'll be given an 'Alert' badge and allowed to go home. 

 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 16th / 17th December 2020.

"The number of new UK cases reported on 17 December 2020 includes around 11,000 previously unreported cases for Wales as a result of system maintenance in the NHS Wales Laboratory Information Management System."

The UK added 35,383 cases today and now has reported a total of 1,948,660 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 364,388 tests yesterday. 

18,009 people were in hospital on Tuesday 15th, with 1,340 using a ventilator yesterday, Wednesday 16th December. 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 532 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 66,052 officially reported losses of life in all settings.

Rep. Of Ireland 77,197 cases and 2,140 losses of life. (Not yet reported today.) 

There have now been a total of 74,928,265 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,662,489. Already 52,640,295 people have recovered.

There was a UK briefing about Christmas yesterday, and London and other areas of the South West moved into Tier 3 restrictions. 

Matt 'Crocodile Tiers' Hancock made the announcement to parliament that there are a few changes to allocated English Tiers. From Saturday morning:
Bristol and North Somerset move down from Tier 3 to Tier 2
Herefordshire moves down from Tier 2 to Tier 1.
(Well done, all of you!)
Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Peterborough, Hertfordshire, Surrey (except Waverley), Hastings and Rother, Portsmouth, Gosport and Havant will all move up into Tier 3.
(Sorry guys.)
This isn't universally welcomed. Some Northern areas with steady and dropping cases have been left in Tier 3, and somehow Worcestershire seems to have escaped being moved up. 

I think we all need the smiles this month, I know I do. Crikey it's been a hard year hasn't it? Give yourself a pat on the back because you really did make it, and if we can get this far, we can get to the end. Right now is possibly the most scary time of the whole year. Christmas is fast approaching. and we're all looking forward to a break, but spending time with people we love and care about is a different thing entirely in 2020. 

We're all worried it'll go wrong. Christmas can be stressful any year, this one even more so. 

Remember that you are only human. You are allowed to feel scared, anxious, stressed, frustrated, but don't let it overwhelm you. Don't expect too much of yourself. In a normal year you might worry the bows match the paper, or the decorations are symmetrical. This year you have other worries to take up your headspace, so only concentrate on what is truly important. 

I say it each year because it's true, when you sit and list exactly what HAS TO HAPPEN to make your Christmas, the list is incredibly short, and the rest is sparkle. Sparkle is great, but if you don't prepare any in advance, you will make your own as you go along. The very best sparkle is never planned...

There was a UK Briefing today with Bozza and Mr Christopher "still not blinking" Whitty. (Crikey they both look absolutely shattered. I can see why this briefing is really early - they'll be asleep by 7pm.)

"It's just a week since we began the biggest vaccination programme in our history. 138,000 people have already received the vaccine. 

Now the bad news: "We are already seeing worrying rises in some parts of the country."

Tomorrow Matt Hancock will announce the outcome of the latest tiering review. (I'm going out on a limb to say it won't be great news.)

"This is a moment for us to exercise extreme caution." Boris reminds us about asymptomatic spread (up to 1/3 of cases). "Having looked at the latest data with our colleagues in the devolved administrations.(Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland) we've decided that the overall situation is alas worse, more challenging, than we'd hoped when we set the rules. So while it would not be right, we think, to criminalise people who have made plans and simply want to spend time with their loved ones, we are collectively, across the UK, governance at every level, asking YOU to think hard and in detail about the days ahead. And whether you can do more to protect yourselves and others."
We're keeping the laws the same, but we all want to send the same message:
"A smaller Christmas is going to be a safer Christmas.
A shorter Christmas is a safer Christmas."
Up to 3 households can meet for up to 5 days. This is not a target, it's a maximum. It's always going to be safest to meet with fewer people. We are asking people to reduce contacts from this Friday. Avoid staying away from home overnight if you can, or travelling to a different Tier.
If you have an elderly (or vulnerable) relative, you might want to avoid seeing them until after they're vaccinated. We are aiming to vaccinate all elderly or clinically vulnerable people by early next year.
 

 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 14th / 15th December 2020.

The UK added 18,450 cases today and now has reported a total of 1,888,116 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 275,772 tests yesterday. 

17,329 people were in hospital on Sunday 13th (up from 14,807 a week earlier), with 1,288 using a ventilator yesterday, 14th December (slightly up on 1,271 the same time last week). 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 506 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 64,908 officially reported losses of life in all settings.

Up until Friday 4th December, 76,287 people had COVID written as a cause on their death certificate. 

Country / Cases / Losses of life by death certificate:
England 1,618,678 / 65,061
Northern Ireland 59,121 / 1,480
Scotland 107,749 / 5,868
Wales 102,568 / 3,878

Rep. Of Ireland 76,776 (+327) cases and 2,134 (+8) losses of life.

There have now been a total of 73,526,544 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,634,963. Already 51,599,044 people have recovered.

Michael Gove held a phone call with the 3 leaders of the devolved nations this afternoon to discuss Christmas. Announcement imminent...
(And yet the kids are in school, the shops are open and tonight you can go to the pantomime if you're lucky enough to live in London or anywhere else in Tier 1 or 2. Head, desk, head, desk.)

In an incredibly rare move the Health Service Journal and the British Medical Journal have come together to practically beg the UK Government to scrap the plans for the Christmas COVID relaxation. The professionals don't want it.
They point out that we didn't get the same result as the first lockdown. They estimate that by New Year we will have as many patients in hospital with COVID as we did at the peak of the first wave, and it'll barely have begun.
"Ministers are meeting on 16 December to review current restrictions for England. When they devised the current plans to allow household mixing over Christmas they had assumed the covid-19 demand on the NHS would be decreasing. But it is not; it is rising, and the emergence of a new strain of the virus has introduced further potential jeopardy.
Of particular concern is the effect on staff, many of whom have already worked through the hardest nine months of their professional lives. Levels of burnout and sickness absence are likely to exceed those already experienced."