UK Coronavirus Emergency Briefing 19/12/20

It's bad news. You may want to sit down. 

- Across all of England, Scotland and Wales the Christmas relaxation has been reduced to Christmas Day only.
- The areas of London, the South East and the East which are heavily affected by the new virus strain will move to Tier 4 (the same as the lockdown in November).
- People should not enter or leave Tier 4 areas.
- People in Tier 4 areas must not stay overnight away from home or mix with other households, even on Christmas Day. 

The UK Government have been holding emergency meetings since last night because case numbers in parts of London and the South West are really flying. They're rising incredibly quickly. (I personally think it's possible parts of Wales e.g. Merthyr Tydfil could also be in this position.)
With the same restrictive measures as other areas, we aren't getting the same effect. The situation has changed rapidly over the last 48 hours.
We do know there is a strain of COVID that has appeared there which is different. It has a better ability to lock onto it's target. It's definitely beginning to look like it could be easier to transmit - or else everyone in these areas is holding secret choir practise. It could be as much as 1 1/2 times as catchy.
Even a tiny bit more makes a big difference when you have high numbers, so whatever change there is will be amplified.
Left to run free, we think everyone with COVID on average usually infects around 3 to 4 others. Restrictions try to bring that number, the R or Reproductive Number, down below 1.
English Tier 2 restrictions almost universally have failed to do this. In some areas Tier 3 aren't doing it either.
If the new strain is even more catchy, we need to come down really hard, or we will have an explosion of cases incredibly quickly.
Running out of hospital beds over Christmas and New Year would be a disaster. Exponential spread over Christmas and New Year would mean January would be hell on Earth. 

Also a disaster for any country would be to let a more transmissible strain out. Just imagine for one second that any other country had that strain - Germany,  Russia, Namibia, Taiwan, anywhere. If they found it and knew it existed, didn't act swiftly and it managed to escape, the rest of the world would be furious. It would also lead to potentially many thousands of extra people having to live the rest of their lives without someone they loved. 

 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 18th December 2020.

The UK added 28,507 cases today and now has reported a total of presumably 1,977,167 positive cases of COVID-19. (The UK dashboard broke at this point, so I can't be sure what total they've given.) 

18,469 people were in hospital on Wednesday 16th (up from 16,136 a week earlier), with 1,340 using a ventilator also on Wednesday.

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 489 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 66,541 officially reported losses of life in all settings.

Rep. Of Ireland 78,254 (+576) cases and 2,149 (+6) losses of life. 

There have now been a total of 75,641,366 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,674,733. Already 53,089,262 people have recovered.

On Wednesday there were just 10 critical care beds empty in the whole of Wales. Surge capacity has been put into place, but the situation is very tenuous. Part of the problem is staff members are also ill or isolating, so overall capacity is reduced. Either way, if there's no bed or no-one to staff it, there's no bed.

Northern Ireland will have a strict lockdown after Christmas. The Christmas bubbles 23-27 December (with an extra travel allowance of 1 day either end if necessary) can remain, but this is the only mixing between households allowed until 2nd January. 
From Boxing Day for 1 week until 2nd January:
- non-essential retail and close contact services close.
- hospitality will be take away / delivery only
- essential retail / business must close overnight 8pm - 6am
- no household mixing indoors or out, including exercise
- no sporting events, including elite sportspeople
After the initial week, for another 5 weeks:
- non-essential retail and close contact services close. (This will be strict e.g. no click & collect or homewares.)
- hospitality will be take away / delivery only
- Sales of alcohol to take home 8am -8pm only.
- Childcare bubbles can resume
Schools will reopen as planned. There will be a review after 4 weeks.
Yesterday Northern Ireland's Chief Medical Officer Dr Michael McBride said that there have only been 5 days since 21st October when the hospital occupancy has been below 95%.

Wales have already announced a strict lockdown for the same time period. 

Scotland are expected to also impose extra restrictions after Christmas. A decision will be made on Tuesday. 

England, pfft, who knows. Probably we'll all have to commit to buying 12 frothy Coffees, 3 suitcases of sale clothing and a room full of housewares, and then we'll be given an 'Alert' badge and allowed to go home. 

 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 16th / 17th December 2020.

"The number of new UK cases reported on 17 December 2020 includes around 11,000 previously unreported cases for Wales as a result of system maintenance in the NHS Wales Laboratory Information Management System."

The UK added 35,383 cases today and now has reported a total of 1,948,660 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 364,388 tests yesterday. 

18,009 people were in hospital on Tuesday 15th, with 1,340 using a ventilator yesterday, Wednesday 16th December. 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 532 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 66,052 officially reported losses of life in all settings.

Rep. Of Ireland 77,197 cases and 2,140 losses of life. (Not yet reported today.) 

There have now been a total of 74,928,265 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,662,489. Already 52,640,295 people have recovered.

There was a UK briefing about Christmas yesterday, and London and other areas of the South West moved into Tier 3 restrictions. 

Matt 'Crocodile Tiers' Hancock made the announcement to parliament that there are a few changes to allocated English Tiers. From Saturday morning:
Bristol and North Somerset move down from Tier 3 to Tier 2
Herefordshire moves down from Tier 2 to Tier 1.
(Well done, all of you!)
Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire, Peterborough, Hertfordshire, Surrey (except Waverley), Hastings and Rother, Portsmouth, Gosport and Havant will all move up into Tier 3.
(Sorry guys.)
This isn't universally welcomed. Some Northern areas with steady and dropping cases have been left in Tier 3, and somehow Worcestershire seems to have escaped being moved up. 

I think we all need the smiles this month, I know I do. Crikey it's been a hard year hasn't it? Give yourself a pat on the back because you really did make it, and if we can get this far, we can get to the end. Right now is possibly the most scary time of the whole year. Christmas is fast approaching. and we're all looking forward to a break, but spending time with people we love and care about is a different thing entirely in 2020. 

We're all worried it'll go wrong. Christmas can be stressful any year, this one even more so. 

Remember that you are only human. You are allowed to feel scared, anxious, stressed, frustrated, but don't let it overwhelm you. Don't expect too much of yourself. In a normal year you might worry the bows match the paper, or the decorations are symmetrical. This year you have other worries to take up your headspace, so only concentrate on what is truly important. 

I say it each year because it's true, when you sit and list exactly what HAS TO HAPPEN to make your Christmas, the list is incredibly short, and the rest is sparkle. Sparkle is great, but if you don't prepare any in advance, you will make your own as you go along. The very best sparkle is never planned...

There was a UK Briefing today with Bozza and Mr Christopher "still not blinking" Whitty. (Crikey they both look absolutely shattered. I can see why this briefing is really early - they'll be asleep by 7pm.)

"It's just a week since we began the biggest vaccination programme in our history. 138,000 people have already received the vaccine. 

Now the bad news: "We are already seeing worrying rises in some parts of the country."

Tomorrow Matt Hancock will announce the outcome of the latest tiering review. (I'm going out on a limb to say it won't be great news.)

"This is a moment for us to exercise extreme caution." Boris reminds us about asymptomatic spread (up to 1/3 of cases). "Having looked at the latest data with our colleagues in the devolved administrations.(Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland) we've decided that the overall situation is alas worse, more challenging, than we'd hoped when we set the rules. So while it would not be right, we think, to criminalise people who have made plans and simply want to spend time with their loved ones, we are collectively, across the UK, governance at every level, asking YOU to think hard and in detail about the days ahead. And whether you can do more to protect yourselves and others."
We're keeping the laws the same, but we all want to send the same message:
"A smaller Christmas is going to be a safer Christmas.
A shorter Christmas is a safer Christmas."
Up to 3 households can meet for up to 5 days. This is not a target, it's a maximum. It's always going to be safest to meet with fewer people. We are asking people to reduce contacts from this Friday. Avoid staying away from home overnight if you can, or travelling to a different Tier.
If you have an elderly (or vulnerable) relative, you might want to avoid seeing them until after they're vaccinated. We are aiming to vaccinate all elderly or clinically vulnerable people by early next year.
 

 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 14th / 15th December 2020.

The UK added 18,450 cases today and now has reported a total of 1,888,116 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 275,772 tests yesterday. 

17,329 people were in hospital on Sunday 13th (up from 14,807 a week earlier), with 1,288 using a ventilator yesterday, 14th December (slightly up on 1,271 the same time last week). 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 506 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 64,908 officially reported losses of life in all settings.

Up until Friday 4th December, 76,287 people had COVID written as a cause on their death certificate. 

Country / Cases / Losses of life by death certificate:
England 1,618,678 / 65,061
Northern Ireland 59,121 / 1,480
Scotland 107,749 / 5,868
Wales 102,568 / 3,878

Rep. Of Ireland 76,776 (+327) cases and 2,134 (+8) losses of life.

There have now been a total of 73,526,544 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,634,963. Already 51,599,044 people have recovered.

Michael Gove held a phone call with the 3 leaders of the devolved nations this afternoon to discuss Christmas. Announcement imminent...
(And yet the kids are in school, the shops are open and tonight you can go to the pantomime if you're lucky enough to live in London or anywhere else in Tier 1 or 2. Head, desk, head, desk.)

In an incredibly rare move the Health Service Journal and the British Medical Journal have come together to practically beg the UK Government to scrap the plans for the Christmas COVID relaxation. The professionals don't want it.
They point out that we didn't get the same result as the first lockdown. They estimate that by New Year we will have as many patients in hospital with COVID as we did at the peak of the first wave, and it'll barely have begun.
"Ministers are meeting on 16 December to review current restrictions for England. When they devised the current plans to allow household mixing over Christmas they had assumed the covid-19 demand on the NHS would be decreasing. But it is not; it is rising, and the emergence of a new strain of the virus has introduced further potential jeopardy.
Of particular concern is the effect on staff, many of whom have already worked through the hardest nine months of their professional lives. Levels of burnout and sickness absence are likely to exceed those already experienced."

 COVID UK Briefing and associated news 14th December 2020

There was a UK Briefing today with our Prime Minister of COVID, Matt Hancock. There's some background to today's briefing, and I'd already typed it up, so it's a shame to waste it:  

"Only by protecting one another, and particularly protecting the vulnerable over this period, are we going to get to the point where people are properly protected, and we can return to having the kinds of relationships that all of us want."
Chris Whitty, UK Chief Medical Officer. 

Because of a big spike in cases, Greater London, South and West Essex, and South Hertfordshire will go into Tier 3 COVID-19 restrictions from Wednesday morning. Hospitality moves to take out/deliveries only. 

On Friday 11th December I talked about the fact that there are 7 clear strains of COVID travelling around the world, and the 'G strains' seem to be the dominant strains. This is because they are more catchy, not because they are stronger or otherwise more dangerous to us. It's also hoped they might be the strains most receptive to the vaccines, as they have more spike proteins to target, but only time will tell. 

Matt Hancock on Monday morning announced that there may be a new variant of COVID which is causing cases to rise really sharply in the South West UK (+ Winter + Tier 2 restrictions, don't forget those eh Matt). 1,000 cases have been identified in the UK, mostly in the South West. DO NOT let this worry you unnecessarily. This is the first we've heard of it - unless it isn't, and it turns out he's just on about the G Strains. That's my guess. He does say they've found this strain in Europe too. 

It's clear that a few areas down South are seeing really big case numbers and you would have expected it to fall more by now, (in fact I spoke to someone down in Kent about that very thing this morning), but if it's because of this 'mutation', it's still very, very small. There is nothing to suggest that it will affect anything else, including vaccine efficacy or percentage of people who become very ill. It's appears to just be something that makes COVID a little bit more catchy.
You only need the virus to linger for an hour longer before it dies, or float better in the air, and it'll have an exponential effect. 1 extra case for every 20 very quickly adds up, and those extra people pass it on to extra people. 
The whole of Europe, and possibly North America, are finding COVID much harder to control this Winter.

 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Weekend Update 12th / 13th December 2020.

The UK added 18,447 cases today and now has reported a total of 1,849,403 positive cases of COVID-19. 

16,531 people were in hospital on Thursday 10th, with 1,275 using a ventilator on Friday 11th December. 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 144 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 64,170 officially reported losses of life in all settings.

Rep. Of Ireland 75,756 cases and 2,132 losses of life. (Not yet reported today.) 

There have now been a total of 72,400,912 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,616,081. Already 50,727,498 people have recovered.

After her passionate speech last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made her move. She is not prepared to sit back and watch a potential disaster unfold over Christmas.
From Wednesday Germany is closing all schools, day care and Inessential retail until at least January 10th.
That's one hell of a Christmas holiday for a lot of people who weren't expecting it. 

The massive increase in ships attempting to dock and unload ahead of Christmas, coupled with firms attempting to stockpile ahead of BREXIT, and added disruption because of COVID, has caused bottlenecks and delays at British ports. This is having a knock on effect - even Swindon car manufacturer Honda have had to temporarily shut down because of lack of parts.
Soooooo, that's going well.... 

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