I think we all need the smiles this month, I know I do. Crikey it's been a hard year hasn't it? Give yourself a pat on the back because you really did make it, and if we can get this far, we can get to the end. Right now is possibly the most scary time of the whole year. Christmas is fast approaching. and we're all looking forward to a break, but spending time with people we love and care about is a different thing entirely in 2020. 

We're all worried it'll go wrong. Christmas can be stressful any year, this one even more so. 

Remember that you are only human. You are allowed to feel scared, anxious, stressed, frustrated, but don't let it overwhelm you. Don't expect too much of yourself. In a normal year you might worry the bows match the paper, or the decorations are symmetrical. This year you have other worries to take up your headspace, so only concentrate on what is truly important. 

I say it each year because it's true, when you sit and list exactly what HAS TO HAPPEN to make your Christmas, the list is incredibly short, and the rest is sparkle. Sparkle is great, but if you don't prepare any in advance, you will make your own as you go along. The very best sparkle is never planned...

There was a UK Briefing today with Bozza and Mr Christopher "still not blinking" Whitty. (Crikey they both look absolutely shattered. I can see why this briefing is really early - they'll be asleep by 7pm.)

"It's just a week since we began the biggest vaccination programme in our history. 138,000 people have already received the vaccine. 

Now the bad news: "We are already seeing worrying rises in some parts of the country."

Tomorrow Matt Hancock will announce the outcome of the latest tiering review. (I'm going out on a limb to say it won't be great news.)

"This is a moment for us to exercise extreme caution." Boris reminds us about asymptomatic spread (up to 1/3 of cases). "Having looked at the latest data with our colleagues in the devolved administrations.(Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland) we've decided that the overall situation is alas worse, more challenging, than we'd hoped when we set the rules. So while it would not be right, we think, to criminalise people who have made plans and simply want to spend time with their loved ones, we are collectively, across the UK, governance at every level, asking YOU to think hard and in detail about the days ahead. And whether you can do more to protect yourselves and others."
We're keeping the laws the same, but we all want to send the same message:
"A smaller Christmas is going to be a safer Christmas.
A shorter Christmas is a safer Christmas."
Up to 3 households can meet for up to 5 days. This is not a target, it's a maximum. It's always going to be safest to meet with fewer people. We are asking people to reduce contacts from this Friday. Avoid staying away from home overnight if you can, or travelling to a different Tier.
If you have an elderly (or vulnerable) relative, you might want to avoid seeing them until after they're vaccinated. We are aiming to vaccinate all elderly or clinically vulnerable people by early next year.
 

 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 14th / 15th December 2020.

The UK added 18,450 cases today and now has reported a total of 1,888,116 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 275,772 tests yesterday. 

17,329 people were in hospital on Sunday 13th (up from 14,807 a week earlier), with 1,288 using a ventilator yesterday, 14th December (slightly up on 1,271 the same time last week). 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 506 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 64,908 officially reported losses of life in all settings.

Up until Friday 4th December, 76,287 people had COVID written as a cause on their death certificate. 

Country / Cases / Losses of life by death certificate:
England 1,618,678 / 65,061
Northern Ireland 59,121 / 1,480
Scotland 107,749 / 5,868
Wales 102,568 / 3,878

Rep. Of Ireland 76,776 (+327) cases and 2,134 (+8) losses of life.

There have now been a total of 73,526,544 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,634,963. Already 51,599,044 people have recovered.

Michael Gove held a phone call with the 3 leaders of the devolved nations this afternoon to discuss Christmas. Announcement imminent...
(And yet the kids are in school, the shops are open and tonight you can go to the pantomime if you're lucky enough to live in London or anywhere else in Tier 1 or 2. Head, desk, head, desk.)

In an incredibly rare move the Health Service Journal and the British Medical Journal have come together to practically beg the UK Government to scrap the plans for the Christmas COVID relaxation. The professionals don't want it.
They point out that we didn't get the same result as the first lockdown. They estimate that by New Year we will have as many patients in hospital with COVID as we did at the peak of the first wave, and it'll barely have begun.
"Ministers are meeting on 16 December to review current restrictions for England. When they devised the current plans to allow household mixing over Christmas they had assumed the covid-19 demand on the NHS would be decreasing. But it is not; it is rising, and the emergence of a new strain of the virus has introduced further potential jeopardy.
Of particular concern is the effect on staff, many of whom have already worked through the hardest nine months of their professional lives. Levels of burnout and sickness absence are likely to exceed those already experienced."

 COVID UK Briefing and associated news 14th December 2020

There was a UK Briefing today with our Prime Minister of COVID, Matt Hancock. There's some background to today's briefing, and I'd already typed it up, so it's a shame to waste it:  

"Only by protecting one another, and particularly protecting the vulnerable over this period, are we going to get to the point where people are properly protected, and we can return to having the kinds of relationships that all of us want."
Chris Whitty, UK Chief Medical Officer. 

Because of a big spike in cases, Greater London, South and West Essex, and South Hertfordshire will go into Tier 3 COVID-19 restrictions from Wednesday morning. Hospitality moves to take out/deliveries only. 

On Friday 11th December I talked about the fact that there are 7 clear strains of COVID travelling around the world, and the 'G strains' seem to be the dominant strains. This is because they are more catchy, not because they are stronger or otherwise more dangerous to us. It's also hoped they might be the strains most receptive to the vaccines, as they have more spike proteins to target, but only time will tell. 

Matt Hancock on Monday morning announced that there may be a new variant of COVID which is causing cases to rise really sharply in the South West UK (+ Winter + Tier 2 restrictions, don't forget those eh Matt). 1,000 cases have been identified in the UK, mostly in the South West. DO NOT let this worry you unnecessarily. This is the first we've heard of it - unless it isn't, and it turns out he's just on about the G Strains. That's my guess. He does say they've found this strain in Europe too. 

It's clear that a few areas down South are seeing really big case numbers and you would have expected it to fall more by now, (in fact I spoke to someone down in Kent about that very thing this morning), but if it's because of this 'mutation', it's still very, very small. There is nothing to suggest that it will affect anything else, including vaccine efficacy or percentage of people who become very ill. It's appears to just be something that makes COVID a little bit more catchy.
You only need the virus to linger for an hour longer before it dies, or float better in the air, and it'll have an exponential effect. 1 extra case for every 20 very quickly adds up, and those extra people pass it on to extra people. 
The whole of Europe, and possibly North America, are finding COVID much harder to control this Winter.

 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Weekend Update 12th / 13th December 2020.

The UK added 18,447 cases today and now has reported a total of 1,849,403 positive cases of COVID-19. 

16,531 people were in hospital on Thursday 10th, with 1,275 using a ventilator on Friday 11th December. 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 144 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 64,170 officially reported losses of life in all settings.

Rep. Of Ireland 75,756 cases and 2,132 losses of life. (Not yet reported today.) 

There have now been a total of 72,400,912 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,616,081. Already 50,727,498 people have recovered.

After her passionate speech last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made her move. She is not prepared to sit back and watch a potential disaster unfold over Christmas.
From Wednesday Germany is closing all schools, day care and Inessential retail until at least January 10th.
That's one hell of a Christmas holiday for a lot of people who weren't expecting it. 

The massive increase in ships attempting to dock and unload ahead of Christmas, coupled with firms attempting to stockpile ahead of BREXIT, and added disruption because of COVID, has caused bottlenecks and delays at British ports. This is having a knock on effect - even Swindon car manufacturer Honda have had to temporarily shut down because of lack of parts.
Soooooo, that's going well.... 

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 COVID-19 Coronavirus UK and World News Update 9th / 10th December 2020.

The UK added 20,964 cases today (UP from 14,879 the same time last week) and now has reported a total of 1,787,783 positive cases of COVID-19. We completed 369,586 tests yesterday. 

15,242 people were in hospital on Tuesday 8th (slightly UP from 15,236 a week earlier), with 1,243 using a ventilator yesterday, Wednesday 9th (DOWN from 1,315 a week earlier). 

In the 24 hours up until 5pm yesterday, we officially reported the loss of another 516 people who have tested positive to COVID-19 within 28 days. We now very sadly have a total of 63,082 officially reported losses of life in all settings. Up until 27th November, 73,125 people had COVID given as a cause of death on their death certificate. 

Country / Cases / Losses of life (by death certificate):
England 1,531,761 / 62,438
Northern Ireland 56,719 / 1.382
Scotland 103,305 / 5,634
Wales 95,998 / 3,671

Rep. Of Ireland 74,900 cases and 2,102 losses of life (not yet reported today). 

There have now been a total of 69,634,913 reported cases worldwide. The number of people who have lost their lives worldwide to COVID-19 is 1,583,351. Already 48,277,159 people have recovered.

Let's start with the bad news, get it out of the way. COVID cases and hospitalisations in the UK are already going back up slightly. Ideally they'd have continued on a downward slope or plateau for another week or so, so this is a bit of a blow, and sadly it's a similar pattern throughout Europe.
When they said COVID would really flourish in Winter, they appear to have been spot on. Buckle up, we can ride this out too.